Kılıçdaroğlu's wild claims, Erdoğan's wild card

Photos: Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu/Twitter, AA

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Within two weeks, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), made two moves that took the government by surprise.

First, he went in front of the headquarters of SADAT, a private military contractor with close links to the government, to label it as a paramilitary group to threaten election security.

The unexpected visit forced the government circles to publicly discuss what is rather a shady company for the first time. Also, several company officials gave exclusive interviews to the media to refute the CHP leader's claims.

Kılıçdaroğlu's second move targeted President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan directly.

Releasing a video on his Twitter account on Tuesday, he claimed to reveal Erdoğan's plan to flee Turkey in case he loses the next elections, which is a done deal according to the opposition.

Revealing millions of dollars of donations from two educational foundations in Turkey to one in the US, Kılıçdaroğlu claimed this money was directly controlled by the Erdoğan family.

The reason they plan to flee to the US rather than an autocratic country that Erdoğan has good relations with, like Qatar, is to take advantage of the rule of law in the US whereas Qatar would send them back immediately, according to the CHP leader.

These claims also caused the activities of those foundations to be publicly discussed in pro-government circles as transferring so much money amid a deep economic crisis to a foundation that provides services to only 50 students, according to its website, needed an explanation.

Both of Kılıçdaroğlu's claims were nothing new as rumors about government-backed paramilitary activities and Erdoğan's plans in case of an election defeat have been there for years.

And neither claim seems plausible. SADAT says on its website that it gives "irregular warfare" training, and it has been accused of training pro-Turkey armed groups in Syria and organizing illicit trade between Syria and Turkey, but there has been no proof that it has been carrying out "paramilitary activities" in Turkey.

Also, in their recent statements to the media, company officials denied having armed troops like the likes of Russia's Wagner. They rather emphasized the company's role as a broker for Turkey's arms sales, especially to Muslim countries.

Moreover, it would be overkill to deploy armed groups specialized in irregular warfare to do activities like intimidate opposition parties' polling staff.

Yet, it was appropriate to express concerns about the election security, especially after the new election law that changes the rules as to how election councils are formed and allows council members to resign — or to be forced to resign.

Claiming that Erdoğan would flee to the US "to take advantage of the rule of law" also seems far-fetched and logically problematic. If Turkey is to become a state of law after the opposition comes to power, the US should have no problems with extraditing someone who is found guilty.

What Kılıçdaroğlu did might be to deploy a new political communication strategy to make the public question the competitive authoritarian nature of the regime, as well as the reason for the money transfers amid the economic crisis, said Prof. Gülgün Erdoğan-Tosun, in an interview with bianet.

An important pillar of Turkey's competitive authoritarian system is to "establish the perception that we will win the elections in any event," she said.

"Kılıçdaroğlu's statement of an escape plan replaced this perception with another one that 'They won't be able to win the elections. This is why they are making preparations.'

"That's why there were so many reactions from the ruling circle. Because the government's strategy of managing the perception took a major blow."

In response to Kılıçdaroğlu's claims, Erdoğan recalled the 2016 coup attempt where he didn't run away but defied the putschists, and the hanging of PM Adnan Menderes, a conservative politician whom he relates to, following the 1960 coup d'état.

Speaking at an event to condemn the coup on its 62nd anniversary on Friday (May 27), Erdoğan showed a newspaper clipping that Menderes was nabbed while he was trying to flee the country with 12 planes full of money and gold. "Is this different from what Mr. Kemal said the other night?" he asked.

● Kılıçdaroğlu warns bureaucrats not to follow 'illegal orders'

● Mob boss Peker's confessions put military contractor close to Erdoğan in spotlight

A possible new offensive into northern Syria

It was clear to the governments of the Western countries from the moment Erdoğan voiced opposition to the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland that he was probably after getting something out of it using the veto card.

What Erdoğan seeks may be a new military offensive in the Kurdish-controlled areas in Syria's north, as he signaled on Tuesday.

"We will soon take new steps to complete the project we started, to have secure territories of 30 km in depth along our southern borders," he said after a cabinet meeting.

In October-November 2019, Turkey carried out its third major military offensive into Syria to implement the "project" that Erdoğan mentioned. But the offensive was cut short after then-US President Donald Trump urged Erdoğan "not to be a fool" and threatened "destroying" Turkey's economy if he continued the operation.

However, despite Erdoğan's remarks that the National Security Council would share the details about the planned operation, the council made no direct mention of such an offensive after its meeting on Thursday.

In an interview with bianet, Assoc. Prof. Zafer Yörük, a political scientist, outlined several scenarios about Erdoğan's possible intentions and what would happen next:

● Erdoğan may try to regain the prestige he has lost recently with a new military operation.

● He may use the offensive to regain the popular support he has lost ahead of the elections.

● Maybe he has no plans at all to carry out a new military offensive but is trying to compel the US to approve the sale of new F-16s to Turkey.

● The US may be planning to secure energy lines in Syria and Iraq, where Turkey has been conducting a military offensive for over a month against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), to find alternative energy sources for Europe other than Russia, and may give the green light to Turkey to clear some areas from the Kurdish groups.

● The US may be playing a "Saddam game" against Erdoğan, to lure him into a new incursion and then turn against him, like it did after the invasion of Kuwait.

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