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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Monday (May 23) signaled a new cross-border military operation in Syria.
Steps will be taken for a 30-kilometer deep "safe zone" along Turkey's southern border and the army is continuing its preparations for this, said the president.
Erdoğan pointed to today's National Security Council (MGK) meeting for the final decision for an operation.
Why has the government decided in a period when the economic crisis and refugees from Syria are the subjects of a public debate? What would be the stance of the US and Russia in the face of such an operation? What is Turkey's purpose with the operation?
Political scientist Assoc. Prof. Zafer Yörük evaluated the decision for an offensive for bianet.
"Erdoğan is trying to regain power"
The decision for the operation has many aspects, Yörük said, adding that Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have lost great power due to the economic crisis and are trying to regain power.
"The SADAT issue has been on the agenda for a while. Also, the 'escape plan' mentioned by CHP [Republican People's Party] Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu tarnished [Erdoğan's] image. So, there is a tarnished prestige. When we consider all of these together, such an operation has an aspect about internal politics. Erdoğan may be trying to regain the prestige that he has lost."
"Opposition leaders are acting like accomplices"
"The AKP is very battered. Whether it goes into war or not, it will try to pull itself together. If it doesn't go into war, it may play the victim, saying that 'Foreign powers are preventing us from expanding our borders, we need to get stronger.'
"Another possibility is that they may plant a flag somewhere and say, 'Let's do the elections.' If many soldiers are lost, they may say, 'Let's avenge our martyrs' to gain something out of it. So, Erdoğan will try to make gains out of this situation in one way or another.
"But the most important point here is the stance of the opposition. Whenever Erdoğan says 'war,' Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Meral Akşener [İYİ Party leader] follow him to become his accomplices. However, they could explain what Turkey has lost because of war with the country's current situation."
"The intention may not be an operation"
About the ramifications of the decision in foreign policy, Yörük said, "In addition to his threat to veto the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland, Erdoğan threatens a military operation in Syria. The main desire is not to bring the Kurds in Sweden to Turkey. Turkey knows that it won't be possible. In fact, the purpose may not be to carry out e operation into Syria, either."
"Threat for purchasing F-16s from the US"
"The real purpose is that 'Give Turkey the F-16s. If you don't give us the F-35s, then give us the new generation F-16s or modernize our F-16s.' Because Erdoğan is stuck. He invested the money that the state allocated for defense expenditures on the F-35s and then spent a lot of money on the S-400s.
"The US seized the money of the F-35s, it doesn't give it back. [Turkey] is removed from the F-35 program as well. Right now, apparently, some people within the state are asking Erdoğan to account for that money and want him to get it back. And Erdoğan is trying to get a promise from the US that 'We will give you F-16s,' with the pressure of a veto in NATO and an operation into Syria.
"Russia has withdrawn from some locations"
The real purpose of an operation would be to secure the energy resources, Yörük further said.
"If the operation is not a threat and is for real, then the superpowers, great powers, and regional powers may have various plans.
"For example, Russia does not make an official statement regarding Turkey's intention to launch an operation. But a Russian diplomat informally said in a statement to the Arabic press that it was a 'maneuver in Turkey regarding NATO.'
"It is known that Russia has started to evacuate certain areas in Syria, and by pro-Iranian forces such as Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi and the Revolutionary Guards have replaced Russia. In other words, there are reports that Iran has replaced Russia.
"There was also an attack by Israel on the Iranian forces last week. It is very clear that Israel is not happy with this. We can say that the situation is very complicated in Syria."
Balancing Iran through Turkey
"Turkey is currently planning to enter the areas under the control of the US on the eastern border of Syria. It may be beneficial for the Syrian regime and Russia if Turkey enters these areas and causes chaos. Because this would keep the US busy.
"FOX TV in the US even described Turkey as 'Russia's hitman in NATO.' It meant, 'Erdoğan is acting like a hitman in NATO in the name of Russia.' This is how it is interpreted.
"From the US's point of view, Iran is increasing its power. It may want to balance Iran somehow by engaging Turkey, so it may give the green light to the operation. So, it may not be just a threat.
"The US State Department spokesperson said in a statement about the operation that 'We are concerned.' Being 'concerned' seems to mean that 'We have given the green light.'
Energy lines
"The US remains completely silent about the operation in Northern Iraq. ıt is clear that there is another project. The US views the situation in Ukraine as a long-term situation. It is looking for energy in the face of Russia's oil and gas embargo on Europe. The US is looking for energy for Europe.
"It is intended to transfer the oil of Mosul, Sulaymaniyah and Iraq to Europe in larger amounts.
"It is evident that the US, Turkey, Erbil and Baghdad agree that the presence of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] there poses a threat to the security of the energy lines. This is why [the US] remains silent against the Claw-Lock operation."
Green light by the US
"The energy crossing point between Syria and Iraq is Shengal. The crossing point of the 30-kilometer deep area that Turkey views as a buffer zone in Shengal. And when we head to the west of Shengal, we see the regions where Turkey is considering an operation.
"We see regions such as Derik, Qamishlo, Deir ez-Zor and Manbej. These are oil fields. It might be through improving the security line with the help of Turkey. It might be given a role to secure energy lines. This is a serious possibility and the US might have given the green light for it."
The Saddam game
"A third possibility is that Biden may be doing to Erdoğan what had been done to Saddam. In other words, they may be giving the green light to trick Erdoğan. Two American soldiers may accidentally die in Syria. The US would sacrifice two soldiers for bigger gains. They may be trapping Erdoğan." (RT/VK)
