Professor Henri J. Barkey, chair of the International Relations department at Lehigh University, USA, has prepared a report entitled “Preventing Conflict over Kurdistan” for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The report tells the new Obama administration that the Kirkuk issue is pressing. However, the priority must be the solution of Turkey’s domestic Kurdish issue.

Kurdish issue needs to be handled with care

The website of the Carnegie Endowment introduces the report, saying:

“The invasion of Iraq has surfaced long-suppressed nationalist aspirations among the Kurds, most notably the emergence of the federal Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). If ignored or mishandled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to ignite violence and instability in Iraq, as well as the region, at a particularly delicate time.”

In the report, Barkey warns that US influence in the region will decrease if US forces withdraw from Iraq, one of the main promises of Obama’s election campaign. The academic suggests the following policies:

• Break the deadlock between the Iraqi government and the KRG over oil and gas revenue sharing and refugee resettlement. This will go a long way toward rebuilding trust and preventing Kirkuk from becoming a flashpoint—the first priority for the United States.
• Continue to support the federal system outlined in Iraq’s constitution and avoid any suggestion that Iraq be partitioned.
• Solidify the dialogue between Turkey and the KRG through U.S. involvement. Warming relations between Turkey and the KRG would stabilize the region and aid in a smooth U.S. troop withdrawal.
• Demobilize the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and encourage its fighters to disarm or defect under a joint political and military effort coordinated by the KRG, Turkey, and the United States.
• Work with European allies to resolve Turkey’s internal Kurdish disputes. Supporting Turkey’s counterterrorism program and its bid for EU accession, and providing development assistance in Turkey’s Kurdish regions would allow the U.S. and Europe to address problems from both sides.

Barkey warns that the leftist and rightist nationalist movements in Turkey, as well as the army, need to be convinced to accept Iraq’s federal structure.

Amnesty and disarmament in Turkey

As far as  PKK disarmament is concerned, Turkey must issue an amnesty. PKK militants should hand their arms over to the US, with Turkey monitoring the process. He believes that a transparent disarmament process would help to get public opinion to support it. As for the leadership of the PKK, they must be allowed to leave the region safely.

Following these steps, so Barkey, Iraqi Kurds would have to announce that they would not tolerate any remaining PKK presence, and the KRG must control the area. US military support might be available at this point.

Barkey argues that Europe must also take part in this process, and that the PKK must dissolve PJAK, the Iranian branch of the PKK.

He also believes that US and European leaders should have direct contact with nonviolent Kurdish leaders in Turkey.

The report was introduced at a panel moderated by Marina Ottaway. Barkey discussed the report with Qubad Talabani, a representative of the KRG, and Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.(EÜ/AG)