Central Bank survey anticipates year-end inflation at 42%

The Central Bank has released the Market Participants Survey for January, conducted with 68 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors, as well as professionals.

The inflation expectation for January, which was 4.86% last month, has risen to 5.41% in this survey period. The year-end CPI increase expectation also increased from 41.23% to 42.04%.

Expectations for inflation in CPI have decreased for the next 12 months from 41.23% to 39.09% and for the next 24 months from 24.82% to 23.69%.

The year-end USD/TRY expectation among participants is 39.9958, while the USD/TRY expectation for the next 12 months has increased from 39.4590 to 40.6370.

The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was 34.3 billion dollars in the previous survey period, has reached 34.4 billion dollars in this period. The current account deficit expectation for the next year is 33.3 billion dollars.

The policy rate expectation for the current month's end is set at 45%, according to the Central Bank. The GDP growth expectation for the current year has decreased from 4.2% to 3.4%, while the growth expectation for the next year has increased from 3.3% to 3.9%.

Expectations for the Central Bank's policy rate at the end of the current month and three months later are both set at 45%.

The expectation for the policy rate in the next 12 months is formed at 36.54%. (HA/VK)