Turkey: The Parties Could Have Come Too Early

Are they?

As partygoers gyrated in tight pants and mini-skirts, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan, once a Muslim firebrand and now a reformer, returned to a hero's welcome from Brussels.

"We succeeded", declared a banner headline in the main daily Hurriyet.

Erdogan and the elite claimed they won what Muslim Turkey had been seeking for four decades: they had cracked the wall dividing them from Christian Europe, and received a firm date for full European Union (EU) membership. Accession talks are scheduled to start Oct. 3, 2005.

The celebration could have come too early. The EU concession is accompanied by many ifs that may deny full membership. There is considerable resistance to Turkey's membership within the EU.

But not all Turks are sure either that they belong to Europe, not unlike opponents of Turkish membership within what Turks call 'the Christian Club'.

"We are different," says physiotherapist Dogan Bulut at a thermal spa in the heart of Turkey's Asian land mass Afyon, in Anatolia. "We can and should take care of ourselves without losing our identity for the sake of EU membership."

The fundamental contradiction remains that Turkey is a part both of Europe and Asia, but neither fully one or the other.

As Turkey embarks on its latest stretch in its journey to Europe -- a journey that has continued really for centuries through war and peace -- both identities surfaced also in a bus journey from Afyon, meaning literally opium from its once-famous and now banned poppy fields, to cosmopolitan Istanbul.

The bus was a Mercedes Benz, but made in Turkey. It offered services un matched in many EU countries - a steward, free refreshments, and films -- like business class facilities in a jumbo jet.

But when a male asked for a ticket, he got a seat in space allocated for men. Women, both veiled and more sporty looking, sat separately. The cost of the luxurious 400 km ride was a mere 15 euro.

The bus passed by the Orucoglu thermal resort off Afyon, a spa on a par with many in the EU, with thermal pools, a rehabilitation centre, and the latest ultrasonic equipment. But to show its other face it offered also a separate pool for women. For five euro, conservative Muslim families could bathe in a private Turkish hamam bath.

"Europe is good for us," said the hotel's information technology manager. "With their criteria, we are modernising our society. We need to be modern, not necessarily European.."

Passengers knew nothing of the proposed European Constitution or the famous' Copenhagen Criteria' required for all candidate countries on the rule of law and respect for human rights. The EU says Turkey has met them on paper.

What was certain was that the Afyon bus reached Istanbul on time, while doubts still linger whether the Turkish journey will ever reach its EU destination.

Unlike other candidate countries before and now, many Turks are trying to stomach the fact that they have to meet a different set of conditions for full membership that may end their European dream at any time.

Talks for entry will be long -- up to 15 years -- and any member can veto Turkish membership at any time. That includes new member Cyprus, divided between na Greek Cypriot south and Turkish Cypriot north. Turkey is isolated over Cyprus despite voting Yes to an EU-backed United Nations plan to unify the island. Greek Cypriots, ensured of entry, rejected the plan.

A price Erdogan had to pay for the start of accession talks is recognition of Greek Cypriot Cyprus by next October. That added fuel to his critics' charge that he has been soft on Cyprus, and sold out Turkish interests for the sake of EU membership talks.

There are enough obstacles ahead in the Turkish journey towards the EU. Europe fears mass migration from a 70-million-strong country set to become the most populous in Europe within two decades. That would give it the most votes in the European Parliament.

And even if talks succeed France is already setting the stage for a referendum that could abort membership. Others are expected to follow suit.

"It'll be tougher from now on," Erdogan acknowledged after the EU summit in Brussels.

The victory claimed by officialdom and pro-EU Turks is based on the meeting of their immediate objective: a firm date for opening talks with full membership. They reject moves in France, Germany and Austria to offer Turkey a privileged partnership in lieu of full membership. They say they have such a partnership already through a customs union and as an associate member.

Turkish commentators say that only now will Turks learn the implications of full membership, if it ever comes, including the shift to human rights from human duties and implementation of a slew of reforms rammed through Parliament.

Police used to often manhandling those under arrest will now have to read them their rights and even get them a lawyer.

Turks are also realising that it is EU leaders and institutions that have led the way to membership talks, and that EU citizens may have different ideas. Opinion polls show scepticism in the European populace.

Turks often point out that the very countries that once threatened Western Europe -- from Poland to Hungary -- are now EU members, while the sentry against communism, and a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member is still out of the club.

"The problem does not lie only in Turkey," says Nejdet Ates, a hotel worker in Afyon. "It is also in Europe. It has to decide if it wants us -- a big Muslim nation. It has never been clear on this. We won't beg to get in."

As head of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso said: "This is not the end of the process. This is the beginning." (IPS/EU/MM/IP/HT/SS/04/YE)