Trade Ministry reveals decline in export, import expectations for Q1 2024

According to data released by the Ministry of Trade, expectations for both exports and imports have declined in the first quarter of 2024.

The ministry unveiled the Foreign Trade Expectations Survey for the first quarter of the year, revealing a notable drop in the export expectation index by 9.1 points compared to the previous quarter. The index, which stood at 114 in the final quarter of 2023, has now receded to 104.9.

The index has seen an increase of 8.9 points compared to the same period last year.

Factors influencing the index include a downward trend in export expectations for the next three months, a decrease in export order expectations, and a decline in the assessment of export order levels in the past three months. Conversely, evaluations regarding the current registered order levels have shown an upward trend.

On the other hand, the import expectation index for the first quarter of this year decreased by 6.7 points compared to the previous quarter, reaching a level of 114.6. This index also witnessed a decline of 11.5 points compared to the same period last year.

Evaluation criteria for the import expectation index involve a reduction in expectations for the next three months regarding imports, a decrease in expectations for import unit prices, and a decline in assessments of import order levels in the past three months. However, assessments related to the current registered import order levels have shown an upward trend.