Election poll | ‘Erdoğan now only has his core voter base left’

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The Operational Research company has shared the results of its "Turkey's Political Panel February" survey. Conducted with the participation of 2,488 people in 27 cities, the survey results show that 55.5 percent of participants think Turkey is poorly managed. 66 percent of them say that the economic crisis is the major problem of Turkey awaiting to be solved urgently.

While 80.3 percent of the participants are of the opinion that the Russia-Ukraine war has negatively affected Turkey's economy, 53 percent of the participants want a snap election in the country.

The top five urgent problems of Turkey expressed by participants were the same in February 2022: While "the increases in electricity prices" were on top of the list in the month before, "economic crisis" ranked first last month. It was followed by "inflation, high costs of living and difficulties in making ends meet", "injustice", "unemployment" and "education".

The survey results also demonstrate that the rate of those who say "I am undecided" or "I won't vote" has been on the increase.

Kömürcü: AKP has lost 10 percentage points

Speaking to bianet about the survey, Operational Research General Coordinator Assoc. Prof. Derya Kömürcü attributes the increase in floating votes to the concerns caused by the Russia-Ukraine war:

"In times of war, people want to see strong leaders and want to stand behind them. While some voters have not been affected by the Ukraine crisis, a wide majority of the voters say that they have been affected in the reflection of the crisis. This leads to indecision."

'Voters have changed their minds'

Kömürcü also addresses the drop in the votes of President and Justice and Development Party (AKP) Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP's People's Alliance with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP):

"When people are asked about the most urgent problems of Turkey, the difficulties in making ends meet, high costs of living and inflation are mentioned every month without exception. Over 90 percent of voters say this. So, the main issue on people's agenda is the economic crisis.

"How does the economic crisis affect voters' behavior? When their own economic condition changes for the better, they continue supporting the ruling party. If it changes for the worse, they punish the ruling party. Voters have been punishing [it] for the past two years.

"The vote rate of the AKP has not dropped all of a sudden; it has dropped gradually. When we compare it to the rates on June 25, 2018, we see that there has been a 10-percentage point decrease, which shows that a significant rate of voters have changed their minds."

'25 percent loyal to Erdoğan'

Kömürcü underlines that even though the AKP's votes have been on the decrease, he has a "loyal voter base" of 25 percent:

"There is an attitude like 'How on earth would the AKP receive more than 30 percent of votes while the country is in such a bad state?'

"This is not a right approach because the economy is not the only factor affecting voting behavior. Some voters bring their worldviews to the forefront while some prioritize their religious beliefs and identity.

"Erdoğan now has his core voter base left. Two out of every three voters with bonds of love with Erdoğan say that religious values determine their preferences. They do not divert from the AKP easily. I think it will be only possible for them to leave the AKP and turn to other parties if the AKP loses the election, other actors get in the picture and appeal to their worldviews."

'Opposition can win Presidential elections'

Commenting further on the survey results, Kömürcü says, "The picture we have is now a deep-seated picture" and adds:

"In the current picture, the opposition has a wide margin, it is even highly likely to win the Presidential election. I think, in this picture, if the AKP is to dissolve, it will happen not because of the bad things it does, but because of the good things the opposition does and displays."

Ruling alliance's votes on the decrease

According to the February 2022 survey results of the Operational Research Center, 38.1 percent of the participants would vote for the opposition Nation's Alliance (of the main opposition CHP and İYİ Party) while 34.2 percent would vote for the ruling People's Alliance (of the AKP and MHP) if Turkey had Parliamentary elections this Sunday.

In this picture, the parties that are not a part of an alliance (HDP, DEVA, Workers' Part of Turkey, Felicity Party, etc.) would receive 16 percent while 8 percent would not vote and 3.6 percent are floating voters.

55 percent say we are poorly governed

When they are asked, "How do you think Turkey is governed," 55.5 percent of the respondents say that "the country is poorly governed" while 18.6 percent think that "it is governed neither poorly nor well" and 24.5 percent are of the opinion that "Turkey is well governed."

In response to a question regarding a possible snap election in Turkey, 53.2 percent of the respondents say that a snap election should be held; 41.6 percent think that it should not be. 4.3 percent of the participants say that they are "undecided" about the snap election.

More people 'won't vote for Erdoğan'

In the event that Erdoğan runs for President in the upcoming election, 54 percent of the respondents say that they will "never vote" for him while 34 percent say that "they will definitely" vote for him. 10.1 percent are undecided and 1.9 percent "would not cast a vote".

When they are asked about for whom they would vote if there was a second round of Presidential elections, 51.1 percent opt for "the candidate of the opposition". 33.8 percent say that they will vote for Erdoğan. (RT/SD)