Economists Comment on Single-Digit Inflation: Inflation Falls, Prices Keep on Rising

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According to the consumer price index announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) for September earlier today (October 3), annual consumer inflation has been down to single digits for the first time since July 2017.

In October 2018, consumer inflation hit the 15-year high owith 25.24 percent. Since then, inflation has been gradually falling. As of September 2019, it has been down to 9.26 percent.

We have compiled the social media messages of economists about the recent figures announced by the Institute.

Commenting on the single-digit inflation, economists have concurred that these figures will not be kept at this level after the winter comes.

CLICK - Turkish Statistical Institute: Inflation 9.26 Percent, Highest Price Increase in Housing

Sönmez: Don't console yourselves

Sharing a message on Twitter, economist and writer Mustafa Sönmez has said, "Don't console yourselves with cold comfort" and warned against the increase that will occur after November:

"As we expected, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by almost 1 percent. Due to the high CPI of the same month last year, annual inflation has been down to the single-digit 9.26 percent. The same thing will happen in October as well. But, after November, inflation will again increase to double-digit figures and will not be less than 12 percent annually. The New Economy Program (YEP) says the same thing.

"No one should console themselves with the current 9.3 percent CPI and the year-end 12 percent. Which exemplary country has an inflation over 3-4 percent? Even with its current rate, Turkey is a country with a huge inflation problem. Don't console yourselves with cold comfort."

Akçay: Prices keep on increasing

Economist Ümit Akçay has also shared a brief message about the issue on Twitter. "Inflation is down, but prices keep on increasing", Akçay has said. Sharing a graph, Akçay has written, "A good graphic showing the dependence of production on import.".

Muratoğlu has criticized Minister Berat Albayrak

Murat Muratoğlu, a columnist for daily Sözcü and economy commentator, has also commented on the inflation figures and criticized Minister of Treasury and Finance Berat Albayrak.

Referring to the dismissal of Central Bank Governor Murat Çetinkaya and appointment of Murat Uysal in his place, Muratoğlu has said,

"Today, inflation will be announced in single digits. The real hero of this success is, without a doubt, Berat Albayrak and his sharp wit. A full year ago, he dismissed the one who announced the inflation as 24.5 percent. He appointed his friend. With this move of his that has played a significant role in decreasing the inflation, he has deserved all compliments".

Ulusoy: Inflation has fallen, prices have increased

Prof. Dr. Veysel Ulusoy has raised concerns over the decrease in inflation vis-a-vis increase in prices. "If the inflation of the people and the official inflation are very different from each other, consumption investment/saving balance will be impaired", Ulusoy has said and added, "Inflation has decreased by 62 percent, prices have increased by 9.26 percent".

Şengül: As it was expected

Özlem Derici Şengül has also said that inflation is down to single-digits as expected and touched upon the interest rate decrease of Central Bank:

"Inflation has been down to single-digits as expected. 9.26-percent inflation is below my expectation of 9.9 percent. The base effect has brought the annual Producer Price Index to 2.45 percent. This picture shows us the the decrease of 200 base points that we expect from the Central Bank will be done at once, not in pieces." (HA/SD)