Why were Surveys Mistaken?

Almost all of the survey researches were mistaken about November 1 general snap election. The most accurate prediction came from A&G indicating vote rate of Justice and Development Party (AKP) as 47 percent. The surveys failed to predict vote rates of Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) as well.

According to unofficial results, AKP has received 49.48 percent, CHP has received 25.31 percent, HDP has received 10.75 percent, and MHP has received 11.90 percent of the votes.

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Assoc. Prof. Dr. Emel Şerife Akça from Kocaeli University Department of Communication noting that the five months between June 7 and November 1 weren't ordinary, thus it is normal for the surveys to be mistaken.

Surveys are mistaken in such atmospheres

Akça stated that AKP has been successful in its emphasize of stability, and HDP and MHP's problematic election strategies have decreased their votes.

"During the five-month period, many incidents occurred to affect voters' decision. Conflict atmosphere, Ankara bombing, not being able to form a coalition, all these caused anxiety among people. The government built its strategy on the claim that the coalition wouldn't be sustainable, would end up in chaos and to the only way to prevent is stability and governorship alone. Whether it's ethical, this election strategy has succeeded".

"What surveys missed was that because what voters feel at the last minute is very important as they take the seal. Many researches have been done on voter left alone in the room. Except for consolidated voters, generally voters are slanted towards the strong one if they are hesitant. This is what happened in this election and voters turned towards AKP".

Speeches of MHP and HDP too became effective

"It was MHP that took the biggest blow in the elections. This anxiety environment was the biggest factor in MHP voters leaning towards AKP. Bahçeli stating he won't put itself in for has seriously affected its voters. AKP nicely used this attitude of MHP, and the voters turned their face towards AKP to avoid to undergo another coalition process.

"HDP also couldn't manage the process well. Its unifying discourse on the way to become a party of Turkey* has turned into a reactionary discourse after the conflict atmosphere began. These reactionary outbursts also had effects on the voters". (NV/TK)

Click here to read the article in Turkish

* HDP is the successor of certain political parties which are predominantly composed by Kurdish people and mainly pursued Kurdish question oriented policies. However, HDP addresses issues of both Kurdish and non-Kurdish people by promising countrywide policies.