Weekly Forecast by Imperial College for Covid-19: Turkey Among Countries at Risk

* Photo: AA - Archive

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The weekly forecast of the Imperial College London says that the outbreak will spread and the death toll will increase in Turkey.

Releasing a report, the Imperial College London has made estimations about the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) around the world.

Highest transmissibility

According to British scientists, the transmissibility, which is measured by the reproduction number, is the highest in Algeria (Rt 6.88). It means that an infected individual is likely to infect 6.88 others on average.

The lowest transmissibility is in Luxembourg (Rt 0.53).

Turkey

The transmissibility of the virus in Turkey is 2.81. The fact that this rate is over two shows that the outbreak will spread more and it makes Turkey, along with Germany and the UK, a country at a higher risk.

The 'real' numbers

Scientists also estimate that the real number of cases and the ones reported do not overlap in most countries.

Its only exception is Luxembourg. The number of cases in the UK is estimated to be 221 times higher than the reported one.

The numbers in Turkey

Turkey reported 16 thousand cases last week. The epidemiologists at the Imperial College London, on the other hand, estimate that the number of people infected with the virus in Turkey last week was around 199 thousand, that is, 7.85 times higher than the officially reported figure.

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Based on scientific data, the British have also made estimations about the number of people who might die of Covid-19 in a week.

Accordingly, in one-week time starting from April 5, namely this week, the scientists foresee 10 thousand 800 deaths for the US, 13 thousand 900 for the UK and 1,650 (deaths) for Turkey on average.

All these show that Turkey, along with Belgium, the UK and US, is among the 26 countries where the outbreak is growing rapidly.

Click on the graphs to enlarge

* Source for graphics: Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries

(MB/EKN/SD)