Survey: If İstanbul Mayor İmamoğlu Becomes Joint Candidate, Erdoğan Loses Elections

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Having conducted surveys with 2,460 people in 26 cities on the phone, Avrasya Opinion Research Center has shared the results of its public opinion poll about the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

The results have show that if general elections were held today, the People's Alliance of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would lose the majority in Parliament and the MHP would not manage to pass the 10-percent electoral threshold.

According to the answers of the participants, if İstanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu became a joint candidate of the opposition, President and ruling AKP Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would lose the Presidential Election.

Nominated by the Nation's Alliance of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and İYİ Party in the last local elections on March 31, 2019, Ekrem İmamoğlu won the repeat İstanbul elections with a margin of over 800 thousand votes on June 23, 2019.

After 51.41 percent of citizens voted in favor of the Presidential System in the referendum on April 16, 2017, the government system has changed.

'63 percent would vote against Presidential System'

The participants of the survey were first asked, "If the referendum for Presidential Government System - Partisan Presidential System was held again, would you vote in favor or against?" While 63.1 percent said that they would vote against the system, 27.6 percent said that they would support it and 9.3 percent said that they were undecided.

When they were asked, "How has Turkey changed since the referendum for Presidency?", 60.1 percent said that it has changed for the worse while 23.5 percent said for the better and 16.4 percent said, "It has not changed."

"In the event of a possible Presidential Election, what would you think that the opposition should do: Should they have a joint candidate or should each party enter the election with their own candidates?," the participants were also asked. The answer of 52.7 percent to this question was "with a single candidate." While 32.1 percent said that "each party should have its own candidate," 15.2 percent said that "they had no idea."

The participants were also asked "whether they were content with the Presidential System." While 66.7 percent answered that "they were not content at all," 24.1 percent said that they were "very content" and 9.2 percent said that "they were undecided."

'Would you vote for the CHP's candidate?'

The participants of the survey, apart from the ones who said that they would vote for the ruling People's Alliance, were asked "what they would do if their party did not nominate its own candidate, but decided to support the main opposition CHP's candidate."

While 85.2 percent of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) voters said that "they would abide by their party's decision," 10.3 percent said that "it would depend on the CHP's candidate" and 4.5 percent answered that "they would not vote for the CHP's candidate."

As for the voters of the İYİ Party, which is a part of Nation's Alliance, 69.7 percent said that "they would follow their party's decision" while 28 percent said that "it would depend on the CHP's candidate" and 2.3 percent said that "they would not vote for the CHP's candidate."

Taken together, while 54.3 percent of all participants answered that "they would abide by the decision of their party," 36.8 percent said that "it would depend on the CHP's candidate" and 8.9 percent said that "they would not vote for the CHP's candidate."

'46.9 percent would not vote for Erdoğan'

When the participants were asked, "If there were two candidates in the first round, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the joint candidate of the opposition, for whom would you vote?," 42.3 percent said that they would vote for the joint candidate. While 39.8 percent answered in favor of Erdoğan, 17.9 percent said that "it would depend on the opposition's candidate."

"Would you vote Recep Tayyip Erdoğan if he became a candidate again," the participants were also asked. While 46.9 percent answered this question with "No", 39.9 percent said "Yes" and 13.9 percent were "undecided."

When the participants were asked, "If there were only two candidates in the first round of elections, Erdoğan and Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş, whom would you vote for?", 39.7 percent of participants answered in favor of the latter while 39.9 percent said "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan." 20.4 percent said that they were "undecided."

When the same question was asked for İstanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 45.5 percent of the participants answered in favor of İmamoğlu. While 40.4 percent said "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan," 14.1 percent said that they were "undecided."

'For which party would you vote?'

The participants were also asked, "For which party would you vote if there was a Parliamentary election today?" The answers to this question were as follows: 34.49 for the AKP, 30.65 percent for the CHP, 10.37 percent for the HDP, 8.15 percent for the MHP, 3.03 percent for the DEVA Party, 2.33 percent for the Future Party and 0.46 percent for the Felicity Party (SP).

While DEVA Party is chaired by Ali Babacan, the former Minister of Economy and a founding member of the AKP, the Future Party is chaired by Ahmet Davutoğlu, the former PM and Minister of Foreign Affairs from the AKP.

According to the above results, the AKP would receive 268 seats in the 600-seat Parliament and the MHP could not pass the 10-percent electoral threshold. As for the main opposition CHP, it would get 213 seats.

When the CHP, İYİ Party and SP formed an alliance, their votes would account for 40.65 percent, according to these results.

'People could not find what they were promised'

Speaking to bianet about the results of the survey, Kemal Özkiraz, the Chair of Avrasya Opinion Research Center, has said the following:

"When we look at the results of the survey, we see that no one is content with the presidential system. First of all, it is because the people could not find there what they were promised.

"Secondly, up until now, the people did not witness the the President engaged in politics. But, they have now seen that it is not the case in the Presidential System and witnessed that President makes polarizing remarks. People do not like it. They prefer a non-partisan President.

"We have also tried to see whether the swing votes would change the result. When we analyze the answers to our trick questions, we see that they would not change the result. When the swing votes are distributed proportionally, Ekrem İmamoğlu still leads." (RT/SD)