Rice Leaves Ankara Pleased
Dedoglu evaluated recent developments including US Secretary of State
Condoleeza Rice's visit to Turkey, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's visit to Iraq, the Iran-USA tension as well as Turkey's military buildup in the Southeast and the new Anti-Terrorism Bill for Bianet.
"Turkey does not have the opportunity to follow a very tense policy with the USA nor is there any reason for it" Dedeoglu said, adding, "this is the path that is being pursued at the time being.
Dedeoglu said that the tension between the USA and Iran as well as the Iraqi Kurdistan administration's role were determining factors for regional developments and summarised his views of the current developments in the region for Bianet as follows:
Rumsfeld in Iraq: "Rumsfeld's visit to Iraq is most likely related to Iran. It is understood that Iran is involved in some cross-border initiatives in Iraq and these are directly related to the Kurdish region. The Kurds are disturbed over this. It is understood they have called in the USA for military duty".
Rice in Turkey: "The Kurds in the region are also of interest to Turkey. If a cross-border operation is going to take place, Turkey says this cannot happen without it. The USA says, on the other hand, that it is not the time. That is why Rice is here".
USA and Kurdistan: "There is a risk of a declaration of an independent Kurdistan. The internal power struggle in Iraq continued. Turkey does not accept this. The USA will most likely change tactic and decrease its support to the Kurds. Under this framework, it is possible to say that the USA-Turkey alliance will strengthen".
"Sides appear persuaded"
Turkey's Persuasion: "The first problem is to persuade Turkey. The problem relates to a crisis developing between Iran and Iraq. The tension over the nuclear armament period has escalated. If we read what lies under these, in reality no one is keen to strike but Iran does not approve of an independent Kurdistan in the region and for the USA to be there".
Troop deployment to Southeast: "Turkey resists by saying the USA can be there but if it uses the Kurds against me, I will not tolerate that. The soldiers at the borders should not necessarily be seen as being there for a cross-border operation. This buildup is against the PKK, the possibility of the declaration of an independent Kurdistan as well as USA policy".
"But both sides look as if they are persuaded. The USA is not objecting to Turkish soldiers being at the border even at point zero. As far as we understand, Rice left Ankara pleased".
Anti-Terror Law: "When you take such a position at the border the first measure will be directed inside. The Anti-Terror Law aims to break the connection between the PKK inside with its external links. It is not possible to search for or find democratic elements in that movement".
"Strategic Vision"
Dedeoglu says the USA has been following a strategy of "linking its leaps" that is spread over 4-5 years and that is related to the integrity of Iraq, the USA policy on the Black Sea and even the amendment draft to the Anti-Terror Law.
"The primary issue of disagreement is not the current situation" he says. "Related to the tension between Iran and the USA, a strategic vision means a period of 4-5 years. The USA is at this time conducting talks to be able to link each leap with the other. This is a linking, a conciliation operation."
"I believe that the USA is persuaded that the territorial integrity of Iraq should be retained for a while longer. Since the beginning of the crisis, there is for the first time an overlap between its own conditions and Turkey's demands: The declaration of an independent Kurdistan will not bother the USA too much but will it will crumble the Sunni and Shiite agreement; the structure they are trying to build in Iraq will become upside down".
Dedeoglu continued with his evaluation as follows:
Tension cannot continue in US-Turkey relations: "The USA, if the term can be used, has 'fallen prisoner' to the policy of the Kurds in Iraq. It is possible that the conflict with Iran will be based on this.
"While the USA has set up its bases in Bulgaria, how long can it continue a policy based on tension with Turkey? It has to act together with its allies to have the bases in Bulgaria be operational and for them to be seen as legitimate.
"It should be seen that under this framework, the talks being conducted are related to the Black Sea.
USA-Iran: "The USA is forcing Iran to make a choice. It is saying 'join my side by changing'. Iran has indicated that it will not do so. So the USA is saying 'those on Iran's side should gather on one side'. Otherwise I do not think they are disturbed personally over the Iranian President".
USA foreign policy: "Whoever comes to power in the USA in the coming period, it is not possible for them to change the current expansion. An overhaul could be possible through cooperation. The Republicans have already started to use this methid. USA policies are not linear, this situation will make it a great power".
Turkey's foreign policy: "As we have no access to all of the data, we cannot see the scene in its totality. But one leg that should not be forgotten in Turkey's foreign policy is the European Union (EU). The Iran-Iraq issue is an operative situation. The EU, however, is a political choice. Turkey should not end up in a situation forcing it to side-track from this. The unchanging reality relation with the USA should be evaluated taking into account the EU. Turkey should look at ways of acting together with countries within the EU (TK/II/YE)