Media Surveys Influence Election Results

Dr. Hülya Ugur Tanriöver from the Communications Faculty at Galatasaray University, Istanbul, says that the pre-election surveys in the media can influence voting behaviour, and that this is to the disadvantage of small parties and independent candidates. According to Tanriöver, expert committees need to evaluate these surveys, and they need to be stopped at a certain point before the elections.

Erhan Göksel of the Verso Political Research Centre, agrees that the media uses these opinion polls to influence voters.

Three days before the elections, the "Radikal" newspaper published an opinion poll of survey company KONDA, owned by one of its writers, Tarhan Erdem. According to this poll, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would receive 58 percent, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) 20 percent. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is predicted to overcome the 10 percent election hurdle and 25-35 independent candidates are going to enter parliament according to the poll.

Three possible effects on undecided voters

The percentage of undecided respondents in the poll is 11 percent. Compared to previous elections, this is a high percentage. Tanriöver believes that the election plls can have three effects:

* Those who do not want to vote for the party which is shown as leading may give up on voting altogether because they believe that their party will not succeed anyway.

* The number of those voting for the second-placed party may increase as some people want to guarantee a balanced result.

* Undecided or uninformed voters may choose to vote for the party shown in the lead.

Tanriöver points out that opinion polls have an important place in political communication and that political parties decide on their strategies according to their results.

Need for monitoring

She points out that EU countries ban the publication of election polls after a certain deadline before the elections. She gave the example of the French presidential elections in April:

"In France there is a high commission of statisticians, sociologists and academics which monitors all the pre-election surveys which are to be published. The commission controls whether the surveys are scientific and only then allow their publication."

AKP exploits polls most

Erhan Göksel says that the ruling AKP is most adept at using opinion polls and determining strategies according to them.

The AKP has worked with Paul Mark, ANAR and Metropol companies and has also collaborated with research companies of media holdings.

"The media manipulate people with their surveys; they publish those surveys which suit their own political leanings at suitable times. These kinds of surveys may increase the AKP's votes."

Göksel added that since 2004 his company only published results on its Internet website rather than in the media, in order to avoid manipulation. (NK/EÜ/AG)