Iraq Operation Not Realistic
International media organizations have made public that the United States of America (USA) will carry out the operation through Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. Observer, the English daily, wrote that "Agents from the USA have gone to Northern Iraq to gather information about the Iraqi defense and to gauge the war talents of the Kurdish groups in the region." Some newspapers wrote that Iraq could attack Turkey and Kuwait .
"Turkey would be in big trouble"
Husnu Mahalli,who is a Syrian journalist, and the Turkey representative of BBC Middle East and many Arabic media organizations, talked to bianet about the realities and would-be results of a possible Iraq operation and its effects on Turkish and Arabic worlds.
Mahalli, who advocates that an operation in Iraq would incite ethnical and sectarian clashes in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and the other countries in the region, argued that the USA does not have a valid reason for such an attack . Mahalli continued:
"If such an operation is carried out, Turkey will have to make a very serious decision. It will have to say either "yes" or "no" to the USA. If it says "no," it will have to reevaluate its alliance with the USA... There are two possibilities if it says "yes": It could give the USA its bases and back off, or it could move Turkish army into the region to fight off the forces. In either case, Turkey would be in big trouble."
What do you think of an operation in Iraq? Do you think an operation is necessary?
Considering USA's reasons, I find such an operation very unjustifiable. The USA wants to attack Iraq and the Saddam Hussein government, just because it is worried that Iraq may acquire nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in the next 20 years.
However, the only country in the Middle East, which has nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, is Israel. Israel's nuclear power since the 1960's is much greater than the nuclear powers of France and England. The USA, not seeing what kind of a threat Israel poses for the region, says that it wants to attack Iraq for such theoretic and abstract claims. Claims that would apply to Iraq in 20 years. This kind of an approach cannot be acceptable.
Iraq has already been punished enough. The Iraqis, who have been forced to live under sanctions for the last 11 years, have seen the deaths of one million people, mostly children. The Iraqis have to lead their lives in unbelievable, inhumane conditions. The hospitals, nutrition and health conditions are really awful in Iraq. Iraqis have to go through all the worst economic, social and psychological conditions.
Why did the USA bring up an operation in Iraq?
I don't think the USA's operation reasons are persuasive. The USA, for the last 11 years, has been making such countries like Iraq listen to the same symphony. It is trying to confuse us; as well as to make us nauseated. The USA, with a perceptive resulting from being the only super power, and with the traditional American arrogance, has the habit of playing with such countries and get pleasure from it. The possibility of an operation in Iraq does not only make Turkey uneasy. It makes Syria, Iran, and other countries in the region uneasy too, and their governments are restless because of this plan.
What kind of an effect would the Iraq operation have on the Middle East and the Arab worlds?
The USA is talking about an operation and thus a Kurdish state. This is very risky for Turkey, which has been having a "Kurdish problem" for the last 15 years. It is also risky for Syria and Iran, where millions of Kurds live. Iraq may get divided as a result of the operation. This division may lead to ethnic and sectarian clashes between the Sunnis and Shiites, Kurds and Arabs, Kurds and Turkomans, and alikes in Iraq. These clashes may spread to the region. If we also consider that Turkey, Syria and Iraq would intervene in the clashes, we may witness the start of a very complicated era. If the USA wants to cause bloodshed, it will do so. I also have to say that the Saddam government is a structure that best serves the USA's interests in the region.
Would Turkey become a part of this operation?
Considering USA's statements, it looks like this operation will mainly be carried out through Kuwait and Turkey. An operation carried out through Kuwait would bear many military risks because Kuwait is an open region. There are no powers in southern Iraq, which would support USA's operation. However, in northern Iraq there is such a power. There are the Kurds, there is Talabani. The USA can, from time to time, make the opposition enter the region by taking advantage of the geography there. It can easily use Turkey's bases. As a result, if the operation comes on the agenda, Turkey is definitely in the spotlight. If such an operation were carried out, Turkey would have to make a very important decision. It will have to say either "yes" or "no" to the USA. If it says "no," it will have to reevaluate its alliance with the USA... There are two possibilities if it says "yes": It could give the USA its bases and back off, or it could move Turkish army into the region to fight off the forces. In either case, Turkey would be in big trouble."
How would Turkey's joining this operation affect its relations with the
European Union (EU)?
There is no connection between Turkey's saying "yes" to the Iraq operation, USA's attack on Iraq and Turkey's relations with the EU. The political structure in Turkey has not been contributing to the country's EU membership process since the 1999 Helsinki summit. The inner dynamics and political structure in Turkey have been inadequate in carrying out the necessary things for joining the EU. Debates about the Copenhagen Criteria are still going on. The EU's attitude about these criteria is very clear. Unless Turkey acts in accordance with those criteria, it will lose its chance to join the EU.
The operation may indirectly affect the Turkey-EU relations. If Turkey's EU membership process ends up in a deadlock, Turkey will have no other alternative in international politics. It will have to feel and act closer to the USA. And that kind of closeness can drag Turkey into USA's Middle East, Caucus and Middle Asia plots. That would pose great threats for Turkey's future.
Could Iraq attack Turkey or Kuwait?
I don't give that a chance. I don't believe that Iraq has the power to resist or attack Turkey. That is a claim aimed at making Turkey feel hostile towards Iraq and act with the USA.
Would an operation solve the problems? Especially if we consider the situation in Afghanistan?
There was no government, system or structure in Afghanistan. There is a group of tribes there and USA only enabled that group of tribes to become sovereign in Kabul. So, the situation in Afghanistan is very different. Afghanistan is a country of no international strategic importance. Whereas Iraq has a high strategic importance. An operation in Iraq would, a hundred percent, affect the future of Turkey, Iran, Syria, and the whole Gulf region. For these reasons, USA's Iraq operation should concern everyone from West Europe to France, and from Japan to China.
Nobody was really concerned when the USA attacked Afghanistan. Attacking Afghanistan was pure psychological. The attacks on the World Trade Center hurt USA's pride. And to suppress such disgrace in the public eye, the USA launched a war on Afghanistan. Who did the USA fight against in Afghanistan? They carried out air attacks. The Taleban are miserable, poor youngsters. The USA could not get a hold of Molla Omer, Usame Bin Ladin, the leaders. Neither Karzai, nor the USA has any influence in Afghanistan outside Kabul. The horror and fear of the American soldiers in Afghanistan is not reflected to the people by the American media. After Turkey took over the International Security Forces in Afghanistan, the USA just wants to leave the region at once. (BB/NM/NH)