Gül's Candidacy: Compromise Expected
Tosun: Election results effective
Tosun claims that both the AKP and the General Staff have been impressed by the results of the general elections on 22 July. He thus does not predict a crisis, should Gül move into Cankaya, the presidential residence in Ankara.
Tosun does not believe that the elections were the primary factor in the presidential process. "But the AKP could not ignore them either. By showing Gül as a candidate, the AKP does not shake hands with the state, but with the people who voted for them."
AKP will practice "realpolitik"
However, because the AKP needs to apply "realpolitik" in order to protect its own bourgeoisie, the party will avoid conflict with the state, says Tosun.
The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), on the other hand, have also been affected by the election results. "The TSK can now not act legitimately 'despite the people'. That is why they will begin to consider politics on the Cankaya- Prime Ministerial Office-Parliament axis as a technical activity, rather than an area where they will want to add their values."
As a result, Tosun says it is possible to speak of a kind of "AKP-General Staff" compromise: "The TSK, who are not happy with the situation are forced to deal with it."
However, the AKP will also have to provide minimal conditions for a compromise. "They could apply a middle of the road formula like they did when Bülent Arinc was Parliament Speaker. His headscarved wife did not attend receptions. Then we could consider Hayrunisa Gül (Abdullah Gül's wife) as being present in the "private" rather than the "public" areas of Cankaya."
Baskaya: AKP moving to the centre
Assistant Prof. Dr. Fikret Baskaya also believes that there has been a compromise between the AKP and the "state": "Showing Gül as a candidate can be interpreted as approving of moving the AKP to the centre. As a result, the establishment successfully obtains a party which diverts and fools people."
"We can say that the attempts to prevent the AKP from electing the president it wants, with army statements on the presidency, the "e-memorandum", and the "Republican Rallies", have been unsuccessful."
There has been one result though: The AKP has been pulled further towards the centre.
"The AKP was not bothered about the presidency. But when the other side took it so seriously, they used the situation in an expertly manner and made a trap. Because they were in power. While the presidency was not so important, they were able to get votes out of it."
After the general elections of 22 July, the "other side" has no moral high ground left. "There are people who cannot digest Gül's presidency. But the army will not make a sound. There is an impression of a gradual compromise."
"Mass deception"
However, Baskaya interprets the AKP's "success" in terms of "mass deception": "We have the situation which the capitalists, the imperialist capitalists, the EU and the USA wanted. The economic developments are highly critical. A little exterior negativity can overthrow everything. But because everyone, the capitalists, the media, the universities, are benefiting from this deception, no one tells the truth." (TK/AG)