Turkey’s ‘test’ with foreign affairs in 2021

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In the last country report of the European Union (EU) on Turkey, it was stressed that the country had made "no progress" in terms of human rights and rule of law in 2020. While the report elaborated on violations of freedom of expression and arbitrary arrests, other statements later in the year noted that Turkey was gradually drifting away from the Copenhagen criteria.

Turkey's failure to implement the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) judgement of "immediate release" for jailed politician Selahattin Demirtaş and the continued arrest of businessperson and rights defender Osman Kavala will be high on the "democratic agenda" in 2021.

Critical year for Mediterranean

2020 was marked by the tension among France, Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean. This tension is now among the issues awaiting a solution in the upcoming year.

Having exchanged several statements amid this tension, Turkey is now expected to engage in dialogue with both Greece and France in 2021. It is at least what the EU and various institutions have been expecting.

Three issues with Russia

Considering that 2020 also witnessed some disagreements between Turkey and Russia about Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, the relations between the two countries are expected to have their ebbs and flows.

While Turkey will try to mend the relations with both the US and EU, it will also try to strike a balance with Russia.

In his 2020 year-end evaluation meeting, Russia President Vladimir Putin referred to President and ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the following words:

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Biden's term at the White House

Joe Biden, the President-elect of the United States (US) will take office on January 20, 2021. While Biden is familiar with US-Turkey relations from Barack Obama's term in office, he severely criticizes the country.

The following issues might pose a problem next year:

• Turkey's purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. On December 14, 2020, the country decided to imposed sanctions on Turkey with the "Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act" (CAATSA). If the tension over S-400 is not solved, the other articles in the act might also take effect.
• On the list of Turkey's requests from the US is the extradition of Fethullah Gülen, especially after the coup attempt on July 15, 2016.
• Turkey's Halkbank is still facing charges in the US for allegedly breaking the US sanctions on Iran. Donald Trump, who is preparing to leave office as the US President, was previously criticized for making concessions to Erdoğan about this issue.

Turkey's EU accession process

While Turkey's EU accession process to the EU had been on hold for a while, the process came to the brink of ending for good due to the steps that Turkey took or failed to take in Eastern Meditteranean or democracy.

However, the EU leaders' decision of imposing "mild sanctions" on Turkey on December 11 was received as a positive signal.

Cyprus and 'two-state' debates

Ersin Tatar, who was also supported by President Erdoğan, was elected the President of Norther Cyprus. Tatar favors a "two-state" solution in the island. Turkey supported it and Varosha was opened again in a year.

Next year, the Turkish and Greek sides of Cyprus will seek solutions in a meeting of "five-plus-United Nations (UN) with Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom (UK) as the guarantor states.

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(PT/SD)