Turkey’s parliamentary election outcomes: more women, conservatives, and nationalists

Sunday election results delivered unexpected outcomes. Contrary to some pre-election polls, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerged as the frontrunner in the presidential race, while an anticipated victory or first-round knockout by main rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu did not materialize.

In addition to unforeseen presidential results, the parliamentary elections in Turkey also sparked surprises by introducing new figures and political parties, ushering in possibly one of the most nationalist and conservative makeup of the parliament in the country's centenary history.

Unanticipated results for the ruling alliance

The People Alliance, which includes the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), received shy of 50% of the vote. However, due to the country's electoral system, it managed to keep a majority in Turkey's Grand Assembly with 322 seats out of 600, despite losing 22 lawmakers compared to the 2018 elections.

The outcome surpassed expectations, as pollsters predicted that the alliance would secure a mere 44% of the vote.

Turkey's largest party with 268 seats, the AKP, led by incumbent Erdoğan, experienced a major decline in votes, going from receiving 43% of the vote in 2018 to less than 35% on Sunday, obtaining roughly the same percentage as when it first entered the political realm in 2002.

While falling in support across 75 provinces, the conservative center-right party kept the lead in the majority of the February 6 earthquake-stricken provinces. Additionally, the AKP maintained its position as the second-largest party in the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Thrace regions, traditional strongholds of the Republican People's Party (CHP).

MHP's extra seat

A windfall for the ruling alliance was the MHP's ability to retain its 10% share. Various polls predicted that the ultranationalist, led by the 75-year-old Devlet Bahçeli, might fall below the 7% election threshold.

However, the decision to run with a separate candidate list even enabled them to secure an additional seat compared to the previous elections, upping it to 50.

Amplifying this unexpected attainment, the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi) emerged as another winner for the People Alliance by securing 5 lawmakers, while also running with a separate candidate list.

Polls predicted that the party, headed by late Welfare Party leader Necmettin Erbakan's son Fatih Erbakan, would barely reap 1.5% of the vote. Instead, it doubled expectations by receiving 2.8%.

The New Welfare Party is known for its ultraconservative views. During Erbakan's official speech broadcasted on state-run television station TRT on May 7, he made promises that included the closure of LGBTI+ associations, ensuring the protection of youth from perceived threats such as "deism and atheism," and guaranteeing permanent positions for Quran course teachers as civil servants.

Another new entry is the notorious Islamist-Kurdish Free Cause Party (HÜDA PAR), linked by critics to Hizbullah, an armed group responsible for the deaths of hundreds, including journalists and politicians, during the 1990s. By running on AKP's list, they got 4 representatives. The Democratic Left Party (DSP) obtained one seat.

CHP's unfortunate alliances

Although the key opposition party, the CHP, led by presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, witnessed a 3% increase in votes on Sunday, the elections dealt a significant blow to the party's parliamentary representation and the viability of "table of six", the main opposition bloc.

Turkey's oldest party, established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923, will see a decrease in its parliamentary seats due to multiple members from the "table of six" running under its list.

Out of the 169 seats secured by the center-left party, a considerable portion will be claimed by more conservative and center-right inclined parties.

The Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) and the Future (Gelecek) Party, led by ex-AKP heavyweights, former economic tzar Ali Babacan and former prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu respectively, are expected to obtain 15 and 10 seats.

Additionally, the Felicity (Saadet) Party, with roots in the ideas and ideology of the influential Islamist politician and Erdoğan's mentor Necmettin Erbakan, is projected to secure 10 representatives.

The CHP further accommodated six candidates from the Good (İYİ) Party, an MHP breakaway, on its electoral lists, but only Ahmet Ersagun Yücel successfully secured a position.

However, the inclusion of Mustafa Sarıgül, the leader of the Party for Change in Turkey (TDP), who has roots in the CHP, proved favorable.

Sarıgül's candidacy resulted in a significant surge of approximately 10% in CHP votes in the central Anatolian province of Erzincan, consequently ensuring the Republican bloc's representation in the AKP bastion after years of absence.

Nonetheless, the alliance appears to be a bad deal for the secularists. In addition to the ideological differences, these factions have brought in an insignificant number of votes for its sizeable 40 seats. When these elected individuals return to their respective parties, the CHP will have 129 seats in the Grand Assembly's 28th term, in contrast to the 146 lawmakers it had in 2018.

Adding insult to injury to the alliance is that the party that opted to run on a list of their own, the Good Party, failed to make significant gains, retaining its 10% vote share.

Meral Akşener, leading the center-right nationalists, was unsuccessful in garnering votes from the MHP, which expelled her following several schisms with Bahçeli and the party during the mid-2010s.

Moreover, the common ground of the eclectic table of six, namely to resort back to a parliamentary system after a controversial 2017 referendum introduced an executive presidential system granting the position unprecedented power, seems in muddy waters, with neither a secured parliamentary majority nor a decisive victory in the presidential elections. This might potentially impact the camp's future viability.

Labor and Freedom Alliance

The Labor and Freedom Alliance, which includes the Green Left Party (YSP) and the Turkey Worker's Party (TİP), gained 10.5% of the votes and will send 65 representatives to Turkey's capital.

Despite aiming for at least 80 lawmakers, the YSP, under which the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) ran its members to circumvent a pending closure case, experienced a decline of around 3 percentage points in its vote share, obtaining 61 seats.

However, seat changes are possible as allegations arose recently of YSP votes incorrectly being assigned to the MHP, whose scores in the predominantly Kurdish-populated regions were significantly higher than expected.

While keeping its status as the third-largest party in terms of seats, YSP's disappointing results can be attributed to CHP's success in winning votes in eastern and southeastern provinces, as well as the pro-Kurdish party not being able to obtain the desired results in Turkey's urban centers. What furthermore hurt the leftist alliance's ability to secure seats was TİP's decision to field candidates in 49 provinces instead of forming a joint list.

The 2017-founded party with communist roots did not achieve its desired breakthrough, receiving 4 parliamentary seats while not acquiring the 3% vote share necessary for state funding, even though its list included well-known journalists and artists.

Notable is that one of TİP's seats will be occupied by lawyer Can Atalay, who is presently imprisoned due to the controversial Gezi trial. He is expected to be released to assume his position in parliament.

Özdağ, Destici, and İnce do not come through

Despite their contender Sinan Oğan, garnering a higher-than-expected 5.17% of the presidential vote and championed by some as a potential kingmaker ahead of the May 28 run-off, the ancestral alliance performed poorly in the parliamentary race. Ümit Özdağ, the leader of the far-right Victory (Zafer) Party, will be unable to represent his party in parliament after failing to obtain a seat.

Mustafa Destici's Great Unity Party (BBP), part of the People Alliance but running on a separate list, suffers the same fate.

Muharrem İnce from the Homeland (Memleket) Party, who jumped the gun and withdrew from the presidential run two days before election day, also failed to garner enough votes to secure a spot at the Bakanlıklar district in Ankara.

121 women secured seats 

May 14's results indicate that 121 women have obtained seats, which translates to a women representation rate of 20.1%, an increase from the previous rate of 17.1%. The YSP stands out with 30 of 61 seats held by women.

The AKP, CHP, Good Party, and MHP, follow with varying numbers of female representatives. The AKP has 50 women lawmakers, the CHP 30, the Good Party 6, the MHP four, and TİP one.

Remarkably, the youngest members of the new parliament are two AKP women lawmakers, the 25-year-old Zehranur Aydemir, and 27-year-old Rumeysa Kadak.

(WM)