Time for Climate Crisis in Turkey

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It is less than two months away from the United Nations Climate Action Summit, the most important climate summit since the Paris Agreement which Turkey has not yet passed through Parliament.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is asking leaders to renew their climate action plans and align them with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

He is specifically asking country leaders to put forward their national climate plans, climate action that would limit global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2030.

Prior to the summit, which Turkey will participate in, a major new scientific study on the climate plan (INDC) presented by Turkey under the Paris Agreement was published.

Emissions increasing rapidly in Turkey

Turkey, one of the countries that have increased its emissions the fastest, had set an emissions reduction target of at least 21 percent from the base (current policies) scenario where no climate policy is implemented by 2030.

This modeling study, published by Barış Karapınar and colleagues from the Istanbul Center for Policies, primarily states that the baseline scenario projection with a minimum 21 percent reduction target assumes an extremely optimistic economic growth.

The study, published in Climate Policy, a respected journal of climate science, therefore calculates a more realistic base scenario that predicts annual economic growth of 3.7 percent and reveals that even in the event of climate inaction, Turkey will have 9.4 percent less emissions than the official climate plan in 2030.

How to reduce emissions?

There are other important and striking results in the analysis by Barış Karapınar et al. The analysis also examines how a 21 percent reduction can be made over this realistic scenario and the economic and social effects of such a reduction.

According to the results of the study, the implementation of a carbon tax both reduces emissions and means more employment and income. This climate action stands out as the most effective method that can be used for Turkey's minimum 21 percent emission reduction target from the base scenario.

If a carbon tax is imposed on carbon released in high emission sectors (agriculture, mining, oil, thermal power plants, transportation and transportation) at a rate of 15 percent of the tonnage value, a 22.5 percent emission reduction is possible from the base scenario by 2030.

The study also shows that the carbon tax, contrary to popular belief, will also increase national income and employment under the base scenario. Employment growth, especially in the renewable sector, will be much higher than the potential decline in other sectors.

The study also examines the Emissions Trading System, another financial instrument, and finds that an emissions reduction of 11.3 percent can occur if the free market is in a regime where the carbon price is set in line with the base scenario target.

Finally, the results of the study show that the renewable energy target given by Turkey under the climate plan, namely 10 GW solar and 16 GW wind installed power target, will not be enough by itself until 2030, and that 21 percent reduction from the base scenario is not possible with this target. (PT/VK)