Turkey is in such a situation now that nobody really has a clear idea of what is going to happen. We have asked Professor Dr. Zafer Uskul, a constitution jurist, about what all these developments mean and what the results would be:
Uskul said that the necessary steps for the European Union (EU) membership process, could be delayed: In this situation of uncertainty, it is not realistic to expect the parliament to leave everything aside and pass the laws needed for Turkey's EU membership.
Uskul, who stated that MHP should not be in the new government, said that, "It would be quite naïve to think that the USA would remain only as an observer in these circumstances."
How realistic do reasons like "Ecevit's health," and "disloyalty" claims, seem to you? These are said to be the reasons for the current situation.
It is impossible to explain the current situation by saying that things happened just because of one reason. One of the reasons of the current situation is the manner with which the Ecevits act in politics. There was a peremptory domination of the Ecevits in DSP. When Ecevit was active in DSP in some way or another, Rahsan Ecevit was not this effectual. Bulent Ecevits's ill health made Rahsan Ecevit become a more active figure within the party.
Any opinions by the DSP legislators that differed from Ecevits' opinions were never tolerated. From the legislators' standpoint, there is another reason: The legislators did not think that they would be successful in an election they entered with Ecevit. Ecevit's ill health undermined their confidence.
But just these points do not explain the current situation. The government was faced with two fundamental problems: Carrying out the IMF-backed economic program and pursuing the relations with the European Union (EU). Considering these two topics, there was no true harmony within the government. MHP has always been a huge obstacle in the steps taken to become more democratic.
What do you think about MHP's call for early elections in November 3?
In my opinion, MHP's call for early elections was an important maneuver
aimed at hindering the steps that should be taken for Turkey's EU
membership. And it is clear that the USA is also pressing. Turkey has a
deficit of about 15 billion dollars. USA is the only one able to provide for
this deficit.
The USA will be insisting that the economic program be carried out. The Ecevit government was nowhere close to making effectual decisions about these topics. Likely, the Ecevits resisted all the suggestions for a resolution. This deadlock would obviously result in such an explosion. That was inevitable.
Why wasn't this explosion prevented?
It was not easy to suggest an alternative for this government. And none of the opposition parties were courageous enough to disrupt the government.
What is likely to happen next?
We have to wait till the tide in DSP calms down. If the resignations from DSP continue, and especially if Ismail Cem resigns to form a new political group with Husamettin Ozkan and Kemal Dervis, DSP would drain away. The Ecevits would be left alone.
There is a second possibility. Ecevit could persuade Cem to become the leader of the DSP.If that happens, DSP can survive up to a certain point. But that would also
be the end of the Ecevit reign.
This government cannot remain in power. As a result, there will be an effort to form a new government. However, these new formations should leave MHP out. Maybe, the new political group formed by the ministers and legislators who have left the DSP can come up with an election government with the support of ANAP, DYP, and the outside support of AKP. A new government formed by ANAP, DYP and the new political group from DSP, will try to carry out the economic program and the EU relations till March 2003.
If they are unable to form a new government, the president will take upon the mission and make a decision about elections. But I don't believe that the political parties, in the situation they are in today, could risk an election.
What can minister Kemal Dervis do in the current situation?
If Kemal Dervis really wants to take an active role in politics, this is his last chance. If he misses this chance, it would be very difficult for him to get another opportunity to become an active player in politics.
Do you think all these developments may have something to do with USA's Iraq operation, which is expected to start in the Fall?
If the USA has decided to attack Iraq, it will, of course, suggest a government, which is somehow in harmony and supportive of this operation. Turkey is a country with a huge debt. The USA would be interested in Turkey, first because of that debt. It would be very naïve to think that the USA would remain only as an observer at this stage.
In a possible election, how would the public's reaction reflect on this government, or on the parties outside the government?
I have traveled a lot within Turkey. I have talked to a lot of people. People are reacting by saying that they cannot think of a party to vote for. The people may feel closer to the AKP just because it is a new party and it has not been given a try yet.
What should the coalition parties, DSP, ANAP and MHP expect?
The Ecevits would never let go of DSP. That is because they are not acting sensibly. They are taking actions according to their emotions. The ones who have resigned from the DSP have to fire their last shots.
ANAP has shed a lot of blood. It will be hard for it to recover. It could recover if it formed a coalition with the ones who have left the DSP and the opposition groups, formed a government, and took steps towards joining the EU.
MHP may go beyond the 10 percent ceiling of the election barrier, but it would be impossible for it to get as many votes as it did in the past election. It will not be able to win the votes of the opponents of the EU.
Why do you think MHP called for early elections although it knew that it would not receive as many votes?
MHP called for early elections so that it does not get smaller. MHP's election dare can only prevent it from falling under the 10 percent ceiling of the election barrier.
Can the deadlock in the economy play an important role in the search for a new government?
The deadlock in the economy is a factor, which would make the search a more difficult one. But our politicians are not aware of that. Every single political party is in a struggle to undermine another.
Why is the Turkish military so silent? How can the military react to these developments?
I am sure that the military is observing the developments very carefully. That is common sense. However, I don't expect a military intervention. The military is remaining silent because it is criticised when it makes a statement. Despite all, the National Security Council (MGK) would suggest things that it sees beneficial for Turkey. But the government is not in a situation where it can do what the MGK suggests. But it can be said that, a certain group of people were quite happy with MHP's call for early elections.
It is said that an early election MHP called for, would have a negative influence on the relations with the EU. Can the military support MHP in that case?
It depends on what they will win and what they will lose by Turkey's EU membership. If remaining outside the EU will enable some to sustain their political life, those would obviously not be happy with Turkey's EU membership. The scene is still chaotic. It is hard to make any assessments. But taking the necessary steps for Turkey's EU membership is likely to be delayed. In this chaotic situation, it would be unrealistic for us to expect the parliament to leave everything aside and pass laws for the EU.
South Cyprus' EU membership is on the agenda. What kind of an attitude can Turkey have regarding the Cyprus problem in this situation?
The chaotic scene in Turkey right now will make Turkey a less active player in the Cyprus problem. The EU would be able to act more freely after this point.
What do you think will happen in the coming days?
I don't expect to see any stability in Turkey in the near future. I think we will be faced with early elections in the coming 10 to 20 years. Our inner dynamics are inadequate to improve the political structure of Turkey, solve the problems about becoming more democratic, or overcome economic depressions. The EU and other outer forces could have helped. However, we are very good at creating problems in that too.
What will happen to the left-wing parties in this situation? Lately, the Social Democratic People's Party (SHP) and People's Democracy Party (HADEP) have been meeting for a possible unification. Esber Yagmurdereli has also called for all the left-wing parties to join together. What are your comments about that?
I have some serious doubts that these parties are really "left-wing parties." I don't think that there is a real "leftist" party in Turkey. It is impossible for me to expect something positive from Esber Yagmurdereli's call. In Turkey, politics is not aimed at solving the people's problems. In Turkey, whether we are talking about a left-wing or a right-wing party, politics is aimed at achieving individual interests. (HA/NK/BB/EA/NM)
