Kılıçdaroğlu keeps a narrow lead over Erdoğan in latest polls

With only one day left before Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, a compilation of 11 recent polls shows a narrow lead for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the joint candidate of the Nation's Alliance, with 48.2% of the vote, while the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is close behind with 47.6%. Sinan Oğan is not even close to becoming president with only 3.25% of the vote.

A Kılıçdaroğlu win would be a historic result as President Erdoğan, the People's Alliance frontrunner, has not lost a single election since he became İstanbul's Mayor in 1994.

However, amidst economic woes, a catastrophic earthquake, and an allied opposition, the man in power for more than 20 years seems to lag behind in the polls and a landslide first-round victory, such as in the 2018 presidential elections, seems unlikely. Erdoğan, at the time, won with 52.59% compared to Republican People's Party (CHP)'s candidate Muharrem İnce, who managed only to receive 30.6%.

As of yesterday (May 12), İnce was still officially in the running for the upcoming elections, even though doubtful to win. He was standing for the Homeland Party, a spin-off of the CHP.

But in a surprise move, he withdrew from the race, citing his opponents' smear campaign against him. Despite his departure from the race, the 59-year-old former physics teacher's name will still appear on the ballot papers tomorrow, and his party remains eligible for the parliamentary elections.

Why is the presidency so important?

The president holds a significant role in Turkey's politics, as after a closely contested referendum in 2017 awarded the position extensive powers, with presidential decrees basically allowing direct rule.

According to data from the CHP, since the implementation of the new system, the president has written and approved 2,229 sections of legislation between 2018-2020, while parliament has only been able to discuss 1,429 sections.

In the event that the opposition wins the 2023 election, there are intends to overhaul the current executive presidential system and revert to a parliamentary system.

Kılıçdaroğlu's previous endeavors

In contrast to Erdoğan, the 74-years-old Kılıçdaroğlu has either lost most of his elections or failed to make substantial progress for his party, until recently.

He ran as the CHP candidate for Mayor of İstanbul in the 2009 local elections but was defeated by the incumbent's Justice and Development Party (AKP)'s nominee. 

During the June 12, 2011 elections, Turkey's oldest party, headed by Kılıçdaroğlu, received 26% of the vote, which was not an improvement from the 26% that polls had predicted the party would receive under the leadership of former CHP leader Deniz Baykal. In the 2015 general elections, the CHP's popularity slightly declined, with a 1.03% decrease compared to the previous elections.

After İnce's ill-fated run in 2018 for the presidency, the CHP achieved significant wins in the 2019 municipal elections, securing both İstanbul and Ankara from the AKP. This marked the first major victories for the CHP, ending the more Islamist parties' almost 25-year-long streak of wins in these cities.

A crucial contribution to these successes was the creation and restoration of the Nation Alliance, first formed to run against the 2017 constitutional referendum. This alliance has been expanded over time and now includes ex-AKP heavyweights, former economic czar Ali Babacan and former prime minister Ahmed Davutoğlu.

Kurdish endorsements

An additional boost to Kılıçdaroğlu's chances is the endorsements by Kurdish parties and politicians, while not fielding a candidate of their own. With approximately 64 million eligible voters, Turkey's 15 to 20 million population with Kurdish roots is projected to be crucial in determining the outcome.

Kılıçdaroğlu's increasing popularity among Kurds is noteworthy, given that the CHP has historically been one of the least popular parties in Kurdish regions due to its links to Turkish nationalism and the harsh suppression of Kurdish uprisings during its previous one-party rule.

More recently, the CHP rarely spoke out against the Kurdish-focused People's Democratic Party (HDP)'s marginalization and even voted to remove mandate holders' immunities in May 2016.

However, in Turkey's four largest Kurdish-dominated provinces, Kılıçdaroğlu is reported to be leading with a considerable margin of 64%, while Erdoğan trails behind with only 36%, Rawest Research indicates.

Second round

A win for Kılıçdaroğlu on precisely May 14 date would be not only monumental but also somewhat ironic. Initially scheduled for June 18, 2023, the elections were rescheduled to this historic date. 

May 14, 1950, marked Turkey's first multiparty elections, with Adnan Menderes becoming the country's first prime minister elected under this system. His center-right Democrat Party won in a resounding triumph against the CHP, ending its one-party rule since the republic's founding in 1923, 100 years ago.

Erdoğan, who had been removed from office and briefly imprisoned as mayor of İstanbul in the 1990s, frequently draws comparisons between himself and Menderes, who was later toppled in a coup and executed.

Now on this significant day for Turkey's democracy, the CHP leader might dethrone the sitting president, who critics have frequently attributed to eroding Turkey's democracy with his 'one-man regime.'

However, while Kılıçdaroğlu might lead in the polls, the question remains if it will be enough to secure the threshold of 50%, as if no candidate manages to secure the required number, a runoff election will be held on May 28.

Analyzed polls

Poll results for Turkey's presidential election:

• İstanbul Ekonomi Araştırma (May 12): Kılıçdaroğlu 50.5%, Erdoğan 45.6%, Oğan 3.9%
• Areda Survey (May 11-12): Erdoğan 51.3%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.2%, Oğan 3.9%, İnce (withdrawn) 0.6%
• ASAL Research (May 11-12): Erdoğan 50.6%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.3%, Oğan 3.1%
• GENAR Research (May 10-11): Erdoğan 51.4%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.3%, Oğan 4.3%
• ORC Research (May 10-11): Kılıçdaroğlu 51.7%, Erdoğan 44.2%, Oğan 2.8%, İnce (withdrawn) 1.3%
• Optimar (May 9-11): Erdoğan 50.4%, Kılıçdaroğlu 44.7%, Oğan 3.4%, İnce (withdrawn) 1.5%
• Avrasya (May 8-11): Kılıçdaroğlu 51.3%, Erdoğan 44.2%, Oğan 3.1%, İnce (withdrawn) 1.4%
• Yöneylem Research (May 9-10): Kılıçdaroğlu 49.5%, Erdoğan 44.4%, Oğan 4.7%, İnce (withdrawn) 1.4%
• MetroPOLL (May 9-10): Kılıçdaroğlu 49.1%, Erdoğan 46.9%, Oğan 2.7%, İnce (withdrawn) 1.3%
• Argetus (May 7-10): Erdoğan 50.6%, Kılıçdaroğlu 46.1%, Oğan 2.1%, İnce (withdrawn) 1.2%
• Remres (May 3-10): Kılıçdaroğlu 52.1%, Erdoğan 44.1%, İnce (withdrawn) 2.1%, Oğan 1.7%

(WM)