Is there a connection between Turkey's economic crisis and refugees?

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"The reason for the economic crisis is not the government, not President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan but refugees, right? There is a single reason for discussing this while there was no such debate in 2016, it is crisis politics."

Assoc. Prof. Murat Birdal

"A country's greatest wealth is its young people. Most of the refugees and immigrants are young. The people who came to this country can be put in a very useful position by education, vocational courses and similar social cohesion policies."

Anıt Baba

Refugees, immigrants, asylum seekers... People who came from countries like Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, Somalia have been on the political agenda recently.

According to a survey conducted by Metropoll in August 2021, about 82 percent of all voters want refugees from Syria to return to their countries.

The most common reason cited by those who want refugees to go back was "they are a burden on the economy" (76 percent). The recent public debate is also about "unemployment and economic crisis."

But, are refugees really the reason for the economic crisis and unemployment?

Birdal: There is no correlation

According to Assoc. Prof. Murat Birdal of İstanbul University Faculty of Economics, there is no correlation between the number of refugees and the economic crisis, and their impact on the unemployment rate is at the minimum level.

No matter where it happens, migration has an adverse effect on wages as long as it increases the employable population, said Birdal, adding that this situation makes businesses more profitable.

However, he said, "We can never cite refugees as a reason for the crisis."

"In the first years of the Syrian civil war, the qualified labor force left the country first. Those who came to Turkey first were people of higher income and education groups, such as doctors, engineers and lawyers.

"However, these people did not stay in Turkey for too long. They used Turkey as a transit country and went to the West. Those who came later were less skilled labor and they remained in Turkey.

"The entrance of such a big labor force to the country, hence the growth in the labor force, pressed wages downwards. In other words, a very large population that accepts working informally for lower than the minimum wage emerged and unemployment increased. On the other hand, it increased profitability and the country grew economically.

"The impact of migration can be summarized like this. However, it would be wrong to take a very broad perspective in terms of unemployment. We can only attribute it to unemployment in the [economically] lower sections of society. This is the case all over the world. Look at the places where conflict and problems arise today; they are all in poor neighborhoods.

"Because there is unrest and discontent. Because refugees and local people seek the same houses and same jobs.

"Many of the people who have problems are not registered, nor do they have any kind of security. For example, we don't see a Syrian worker in a car factory in Bursa. Places where we talk about are those with informal labor, such as seasonal labor."

"Scapegoats"

While the refugees' situation in terms of the economy does not bother the upper-income groups, fascism finds a base among the lower income groups, said Birdal.

"The only reason why there was not such a debate in 2016 and there is one in 2022 is politics. The reason why it finds support among the people is the economic crisis.

"Because it is easier to point out refugees/migrants as the reason for the crisis and say they are the reason for poverty.

"Yes, Turkey is in an economic crisis. Purchasing power of the majority of society has decreased, they have become poorer. But it is refugees who have been targeted and scapegoated.

"The reason for the economic crisis is not the government, not politicians, not President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but refugees, right? At this point, nationalism is an extremely easy tool for social mobilization."

"They are not alternatives to locals"

Anıt Baba of the Local Integration Association of Refugees and Migrants discusses the issue through the statements of government officials.

Recalling statements from former ministers Ahmet Eşref Fakıbaba (July 2017 - July 2018), Bekir Pakdemirli (July 2018 - Mart 2022), Mahmet Özhaseki and Minister of Interior Süleyman Soylu that "if they go, agriculture and industry would collapse," Baba said there might be some truth to that.

Areas of work where refugees and migrants are employed are areas where locals no longer prefer to work, he noted, adding that studies by their association have shown that foreign workers are not alternatives to workers from Turkey but fill the areas where workers from Turkey left.

"Refugees are mostly doing jobs in the informal sector, heavy work and low-wage jobs with long working hours," he said. "

"Since refugees are employed without insurance and for low wages, they may have had a negative impact in terms of decreasing wages in the labor market or reducing the bargaining power of workers from Turkey, but this is not the problem of those people. Foreign workers are in this position independent of their wishes and intentions. So, they are not the cause of the situation that has arisen, they are aggrieved by it.

"Working in some professions is just about being a citizen of Turkey, anyway. Especially the fields that we can call 'qualified' or 'white-collar.' These people cannot perform certain professions in Turkey or procedures are very difficult. In the face of these difficulties, qualified ones prefer countries where they can do their jobs.

"A country's greatest wealth is its young people. Most of the refugees and immigrants are young. The people who came to this country can be put in a very useful position by education, vocational courses and similar social cohesion policies. Or, they can be made hostile and turned into people who roam on the streets.

"This is a choice not up to refugees, but rather to those who rule the country. It is related to how it is approached, how policies are produced, and how solutions are produced.

"At this point, what needs to be done is to manage the process. To end the chaos and disorder in this area, to ensure their integration into the labor market in a normal framework.

"Eliminating the grievances of refugees and workers in the countries they go to is possible if politicians comprehend this process as a social phenomenon in the reality of life. This is the only way that the existence of foreign workers would not reduce the negotiation power of the workers from Turkey." (HA/VK)