High voting rate positions far-right candidate as potential key player in Turkey's presidential runoff

 Photo: AA/File

Following the parliamentary and presidential elections held in Turkey on May 14, the unexpected performance of Sinan Oğan, the candidate of the far-right Ancestral (Ata) Alliance, has positioned him as a potential "kingmaker" in the political landscape.

With an impressive 5.17 percent of the votes, Oğan's support may have a crucial role in determining the outcome of the presidential runoff between the top two contenders on May 28.

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, representing the People's Alliance, secured 49.51 percent of the votes, falling just short of the required majority to avoid a second round. The main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Nation's Alliance, obtained 44.88 percent of the votes, setting the stage for a closely contested runoff.

Oğan's unexpected surge in the election results has garnered attention and speculation about which candidate he may choose to support, as it could provide a significant advantage.

In a recent interview on TV 100, Oğan addressed the ongoing speculation surrounding his position and potential alliances. He revealed that he had conducted meetings with the general chairpersons of the parties in his alliance, and consulted with over 100 members to gauge their inclinations. Oğan emphasized that the decision he makes will not be solely his own but will reflect the sentiments and preferences of his party's base.

"My decision will be finalized within one or two days. This decision will enable us to mobilize a significant portion of our base," he said.

The Kurdish-focused parties

While Oğan did not explicitly declare his support for any candidate, he outlined the demands that would need to be met for potential cooperation. These demands include a commitment to "combating terrorism," implementing a scheduled process for the repatriation of refugees, excluding the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and Free Cause Party (HÜDAPAR) from the future government, and ensuring the preservation of the first four articles and Article 66 of the Constitution.

The HDP, which competed in the election under the Green Left Party, supported Kılıçdaroğlu in the presidential election while running in the parliamentary polls separately, whereas the HÜDA PAR was a member of the People's Alliance. Four members of it ran in the elections under Erdoğan's AKP and were elected MPs, to switch back to HÜDA PAR after being mandated. The Green Left has become the third-largest party in the parliament with over 60 deputies.

However, Oğan made it clear that he opposed any involvement of HÜDA PAR in the government, emphasizing that their inclusion would be untenable. With these conditions in mind, Oğan expressed optimism that both sides could find common ground and reach an agreement.

Eight million votes

"If the 8 million voters who did not go to the ballot box are motivated and brought to the polls, winning is possible. A difference of around 4 points is not an unbridgeable gap. At worst, even if AK Party wins, they will win by a margin of 50-something," Oğan remarked.

"The probability of the Nation Alliance winning is 49, and the probability of the People's Alliance winning is 51. Regardless of who wins, we do not believe that a strong government will emerge. We are preparing for a new election that will be held in 2-3 years."

As the political landscape awaits Oğan's decision, experts suggest that his support could significantly impact the final outcome. Should he throw his weight behind either Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu, it could provide the chosen candidate with a crucial boost in the runoff election. (VK)