The Council of Ministers is due to meet in Copenhagen in Denmark in December. To allay a wider backlash at home, the progress report by the Commission on the 13 prospective candidates is being portrayed within Turkey as a "technical" one subject to change by the EU heads of state at their Copenhagen summit.
In its report on the status of prospective candidates, the European Commission praised reforms in Turkey (abolishing the death sentence and allowing education and broadcast in Kurdish) but did not set a date for accession negotiations. It said Turkey needs to do more in the human rights field and increase civilian control over the military. It also noted that recent legislation needs time to be implemented to the EU's satisfaction.
The Commission expressed its willingness to step up EU assistance to Turkey but it passed the hot potato to the heads of state. Turkey had earlier turned down an invitation to join along with Greece, but its bid since has been refused for years.
Most of Turkish media has said that Turkey deserved at least a date for talks. Analysts accused the Commission of double standards or of failure to comprehend the enormity of reforms in a society that has often upheld human duties above human rights.
Charges also flew that the EU is taking Turkey for a ride and that it has no intention of accepting a nation of 70 million with 98 per cent Muslims. Inclusion of Turkey with freedom to its large population to move freely within the EU would bring drastic changes to the EU, commentators say. Beneath the surface there are concerns over what many call the 'Christian Club'.
"We will all see whether the Europeans wish to see a genuinely pluralistic society with multicultural and multi-religious dimensions," says Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel. Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli says the EU is "not sincere" with Turkey and has one standard for others and another for Turkey.
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit says Turkey will not accept any alternative to full membership, following reports that Turkey may be offered a special status short of full accession. Gurel says anything short of full membership would force Turkey to review its relations with the EU, including the Customs Union that grants preference to EU firms in Turkey's big market.
Gurel warned that the refusal to consider Turkey would seal the division of Cyprus between the internationally recognised Greeks in the south and the Turks in the north if it admits Cyprus without a deal to reunite the island. Turkey has threatened to annex the north if the southern part of Cyprus is admitted as representing the entire island.
Such a development could pit Greece and Turkey against one another, analysts say. Following recent rapprochement between the two, Greece broke with past policy to proclaim support for Turkey's bid for EU membership.
Ilnur Cevik, editor-in-chief of The Turkish Daily News says: "If the EU doors are shut to Turkey, the militants will gain an upper hand and that will have serious repercussions in all fields and may even go as far as to threaten peace and security in the eastern Mediterranean. With Turkey completely out of the EU, with the Greek Cypriots in, we have a recipe for a serious confrontation between Turkey and Greece."
Turkey's hand is being strengthened by its strategic role in the volatile Middle East, but elections in November could cloud its future course. An all-out lobbying effort is being urged, but it is also conceded that time is short and government leaders are in a political mode for the general elections set for November 3.
The Commission's report gives ammunition to parties campaigning against EU membership on EU terms. If anti-EU sentiment prevails at the elections - a national and far-right group is campaigning against EU-mandated reforms - Turkey's bid could suffer a mortal blow for a long time. A new pro-EU government, on the other hand, would have no time both to pass additional reforms or implement those already on paper - and lobby for them.
The U.S. is believed to be lobbying for Turkey. But analysts say that effort could backfire given the growing mood within the EU against U.S.-lead military action in Iraq, particularly if it goes ahead without authorisation of the United Nations Security Council.
To answer objections that Turkey is not quite within Europe, Turks say that Cyprus is far closer to Beirut than Athens. The issue over democracy is countered by arguments that former Communist countries given accession dates are not shining examples of democracy either. Prof. Ilter Turan of Istanbul's Bilgi University says daily life in Turkey is similar to that in Greece or southern parts of Italy, Spain or Portugal when they became members. But the European Commission has not found all this to be reason enough yet.
According to recent indicators 34 per cent of EU citizens want Turkey within the EU. Two-thirds of Turks want to be in the EU, though half doubt that will ever happen.
One compromise being mentioned within diplomatic circles ahead of the Copenhagen meeting is that Turkey could obtain a "conditional date" possibly years from now for talks to begin. Meanwhile Turkey would bring in more reforms and implement those in the books. It would give time also to both the EU and Turkey to ask the 40-year-old question again: Do they real want each other? (END/IPS/MM/IP/HT/SS/02)
