Erdoğan's 'chaos' remarks show 'he thinks he may lose elections'

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President and Justice and Development Party (AKP) Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said yesterday (November 16) that the opposition's win in the next election would "lead to chaos."

"Taking along with them a so-called nationalist party and a party controlled by the separatist organization, those who guide the CHP [main opposition Republican People's Party] are playing a game that is seemingly beneficial for them but is equally harmful to our country," he told his party's parliamentary group.

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Political scientist Prof. Tanju Tosun, international relations professor Fuat Keyman, theater artist Orhan Alkaya and Fatma Bostan-Ünsal, a founding member of the AKP, commented on Erdoğan's statements for bianet.

Bostan-Ünsal: He is getting weaker

"Erdoğan had similar statements before as well. He had an approach like, 'Will we hand over the power to them?' This statement was no surprise. In a sense, he attempted to counteract [CHP leader] Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's 'reconciliation' move.

"Because his base no longer thinks he is indispensable, Erdoğan is trying to direct them and staying in power this way. His own base is abandoning him.

"Interest rates are the highest in the world, foreign exchange rates are very high and there is no need to mention inflation and unemployment. The understanding that 'Only we can rule, we are the only competent ones, it's us who can save the country' doesn't work anymore. On the contrary, it shows how weaker Erdoğan has gotten."

Keyman: He sees the possibility of losing

"First of all, Erdoğan is seriously considering the possibility of the opposition's win for the first time since the AK Party was founded. I think this is important. All such statements show that he sees it's possible that the opposition may win the election.

"On the other hand, it is, of course, not possible to agree with Erdoğan's statements. Because, if there is democracy in Turkey, the opposition has the capacity and the right to come to power and rule Turkey, just like [the AKP].

"After all, democracy is a system where both the government and the opposition have a 50 percent chance of winning elections and ruling the country when you flip the coin.

"In no democracy there can be statements like 'There will be chaos' before the elections take place and the opposition wins. This is against political science and political norms.

"While I don't accept this possibility, I regard Erdoğan's statement as an important sign that we have entered the election period. It's an important statement for us to understand that he also sees the possibility of losing the election."

Tosun: A strategy to consolidate voters

"This is a discourse that the populist right has been using in Turkey since the '80s, especially to keep their dissolving bases together. ANAP leader Turgut Özal had also said before local elections that 'If you vote for opposition parties, they can't do anything.' In their adverts, they had shown municipal workers tied in the hands.

"A psychological state related to identifying the existence of politics, the economy, and society with their own existence... However, a democracy is a regime of alternatives. Voters find who is closer to them.

"[Erdoğan] uses a strategic language to consolidate his own voters and keep the voters that may leave the AKP by addressing the voters with negative discourse. Will the voters respond to this strategy? I don't think so."

Alkaya: No chaos will emerge out of chaos

"No chaos will emerge out of chaos. Therefore, what awaits Turkey is a period of remission, a period of recovery. As far as I can see, there is a preparation of this in politics in terms of the people aspect. Therefore, the answer to this statement is that Erdoğan's acceptance that you can't fight facts is a desperate expectation.

"Looking at what has happened recently and the point where the politics has come, we can say this is a process of the construction of an alliance.

"In this sense, I'd like to point out that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his team have been increasingly successful in doing responsible politics in the past two years." (AS/EMK/HA/PT/VK)