Erdoğan's AKP loses a lot of votes but the opposition gains a little, shows survey

President Erdoğan and his spouse Emine Erdoğan in Siirt on December 4. (Photo: AA)

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While the voting rate of the ruling People's Alliance has dropped significantly, most of the voters they lost have become "undecided" voters rather than supporting the opposition, according to a new survey by the MetroPoll company.

Less than 24 percent of the respondents said they would vote for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) if there were elections this coming Sunday. The voting rate of the AKP's allies, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), stood at 3.9 percent, according to the poll.

Even with the undecided, protesting and unresponsive voters distributed to the parties proportionally, the AKP and the MHP get 32.3 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively, well below their voting rates in the 2018 elections, where they got a total of 53.66 percent of the votes.

The ruling alliance dropping below the 50 percent mark is significant as 50 percent plus one vote is needed for the presidential election.

Results of the survey:

Winning back the voters

However, according to Özer Sencar, the founder of MetroPoll, the "undecided/unresponsive/protesting" voters may return to the AKP as they drifted away from the party for "economic reasons."

They had found that about 12 percent of the 26 percent of such voters were AKP supporters, he told Radio Sputnik.

"Half of the people who abandoned the ruling party still have an emotional bond to Erdoğan," said Sencar. "Forty-five percent of the AK Party voters who have become undecided say 'we would definitely vote for Erdoğan' if there were a presidential election this Sunday."

"They distanced themselves from the AK Party but because they didn't go elsewhere, chances are they will return to the AK Party are high and Erdoğan is currently trying to make this happen," he added.

Change in party votes over time:

Snap elections

The government's recent economic policies, including a sharp raise in the minimum wage, indicate that it is implementing an "election economy," according to Sencar.

"They should decide for an election at the point where the citizens are relatively relieved," he said.

President Erdoğan has firmly dimissed the opposition's call for early elections so far, insisting that the polls will take place in June 2023 as scheduled.

Opposition needs the HDP's support

While the popular support of the Nation's Alliance of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the İYİ (Good) Party, a splinter movement of the MHP, surpassed that of the ruling alliance, it still can't secure 50 percent of the votes, shows the survey.

With the undecided voters distributed proportionally, the CHP and the İYİ Party get 27.4 percent and 14.2 percent of the votes, respectively, with their total voting rate 8.4 percent short of the presidential election threshold.

This means they would need the support of the Kurdish issue-focused Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) to beat Erdoğan's alliance.

Aware of this situation, the HDP has been saying that it will be the key party for the next elections and demanding the opposition alliance to adopt a pro-solution approach to the Kurdish question.

CLICK - HDP wants solution to Kurdish question for supporting opposition against Erdoğan 

*The poll was conducted between December 11 and 15 among 1,514 people in 28 provinces with the "computer-assisted telephone interview" method.

(AEK/VK)