Erdoğan leads rival ahead of May 28 runoff, pollster suggests

Photo: AA

Click here to read in Turkish (1) (2)

Three days before the second round of Turkey's presidential elections, one of the country's top pollsters suggests that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will garner a majority of the votes in the runoff on May 28.

The incumbent will receive 52.7% of the votes, while Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, candidate of the oppositional Nation Alliance, will obtain  47.3%, according to KONDA's data released today (May 25).

The research firm acknowledges that there are multiple factors that could affect the survey results and have an impact on Sunday's election.

These factors include events taking place in the week leading up to May 28. Furthermore, the voter turnout rate could vary since this marks the first time a second round is being held under Turkey's presidential system, introduced in 2018 after a controversial referendum.

Additionally, variations could occur due to changes in voting strategies resulting from the dissolution of the Ancestral (Ata) Alliance following the initial round of the presidential election.

Yesterday (May 24), Ümit Özdağ, leader of the anti-refugee Victory (Zafer) Party, which received 2.23% of the parliamentary votes on May 14, announced his support for opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu, while their presidential candidate, Sinan Oğan, who secured a surprisingly 5.17% of the vote in the first round, endorsed the ruling head of state on Monday (May 21).

Failed predictions, pollster mafia allegations

Despite predictions by pollsters of a victory for Kılıçdaroğlu on May 14, the presidential contender fell short, receiving only a mere 44.9% of the vote.

In contrast, Erdoğan came close to surpassing the 50% threshold with 49.5%, maintaining his unbeaten record in elections since his tenure as İstanbul's Mayor in 1994.

KONDA similarly failed to foretell the incumbent's strong run. Instead, it estimated that the Nation Alliance's candidate would secure 49.3% while the People Alliance's contender would receive 43.7.

The inaccurate forecast led to accusations by Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, calling KONDA's manager an "influence spy." Soylu went on to claim the existence of a "pollster mafia" operating within the country.

These failed projections have led to KONDA releasing a detailed statement today regarding the election survey it conducted three days before the dual elections on May 14.

The research company indicated that a multitude of factors may have influenced the research findings' deviation beyond the margin of error. These factors include rising cultural identity, political polarization, and the five-year time gap since the last general election.

Methodology

The survey took place from May 20-21, 2023, and involved face-to-face interviews with 3,607 individuals in 154 neighborhoods and villages in 108 districts across 34 provinces.

Visited provinces: Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Denizli, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Erzincan, Erzurum, Eskişehir, Gaziantep, Giresun, Hatay, Mersin, Istanbul, Izmir, Karaman, Kars, Kayseri, Kırklareli, Konya, Malatya, Manisa, Sakarya, Samsun, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon, Şanlıurfa, and Van. (TY/WM)