In a statement signed by 118 economists, the government was urged to adjust the minimum wage according to current inflation rates rather than projected inflation for the coming year.
The call reflects rising concerns that inflation is eroding living standards for lower-income households, especially minimum wage earners, who represent nearly half of Turkey’s workforce.
Prospects dim for Turkey's workers ahead of minimum wage raise
25 October 2024
The economists argued that using anticipated inflation instead of actual rates would fail to address the financial challenges facing minimum wage workers, who have been left vulnerable by Turkey’s prolonged inflation problem.
“Recently, monetary and fiscal policies have been shaped with the aim of combating inflation. However, the decision to avoid a minimum wage increase in July 2024, and the plan to base the anticipated January 2025 increase on expected inflation (25%) rather than actual inflation, raises both scientific and social concerns,” reads the statement.
As economists who have signed below, we emphasize that:
- The societal cost of fighting inflation should be fairly distributed;
- Preserving the purchasing power of minimum-wage workers is a fundamental responsibility of a social state;
- Wage increases below actual inflation rates will further worsen income inequality;
- The success of anti-inflation efforts cannot come at the expense of lowering the living standards of low-income individuals.
In this context, we urge those directing economic policy to take immediate steps toward:
- Basing minimum wage increases on actual inflation rates,
- Adopting a holistic economic policy that considers income distribution.
- We call for urgent action on these points to safeguard social equity and economic resilience.
The debate over whether to link the minimum wage to actual or anticipated inflation has gained traction recently, as Turkey’s economic policies have increasingly aligned with International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations.
Based on the draft budget submitted to parliament, economists expect a minimum wage hike between 17% and 25%, in line with the Central Bank’s year-end inflation rate of 17% for 2025.
Economists who signed the statement: Ceyhun Elgin (Boğaziçi University), Adem Yavuz Elveren (İzmir Ekonomi University & Fitchburg State University), Cem Oyvat (University of Greenwich), A. Erinç Yeldan (Kadir Has University), A. Oğuz Demir (Ekonomistler Platformu), Ahmet Haşim Köse (Open University), Ahmet Makal (Ankara University, retired), Ahmet Yılmaz (Marmara University), Ali Alper Alemdar (St. Francis College), Ali Rıza Güngen (McMaster University), Alper Duman (İzmir Ekonomi University), Anıl Aba (Yaşar University), Arda Tunca (Independent Researcher), Armağan Gezici (UWE Bristol), Ata Can Bertay (Sabancı University), Ayça Akarçay (Galatasaray University), Ayça Tekin-Koru (TED University), Aziz Çelik (Kocaeli University), Aziz Konukman (Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University), Baki Demirel (Yalova University), Begüm Özkaynak (Boğaziçi University), Bilin Neyaptı (Bilkent University), Bülent Eşiyok (İstanbul Gelişim University), Burçay Erus (Boğaziçi University), Çağla Ünlütürk (PAÜ), Caner Özdurak (Beykoz University), Cem Başlevent (İstanbul Kültür University), Cem Somel (Abant İzzet Baysal University, retired), Çiğdem Boz (Independent Researcher), Değer Eryar (İzmir Ekonomi University), E. Ahmet Tonak (University of Massachusetts Amherst & Smith College), Ebru Voyvoda (ODTÜ), Elif Karaçimen (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University), Emre Özçelik (ODTÜ-Kıbrıs), Engin Kara (Cardiff University), Ensar Yılmaz (Yıldız Teknik University), Ercan Uygur (Ankara University, retired), Ergin Yıldızoğlu (Cumhuriyet Columnist), Erol Balkan (Hamilton College), Erol Taymaz (ODTÜ), Esra Uğurlu (Leeds University), F. Ahmet Öncü (Sabancı University, retired), Fatih Kansoy (Oxford University), Fatih Özatay (TOBB ETÜ), Ferhat Akyüz (Samsun University), Fikret Adaman (Boğaziçi University), Fikret Görün (ODTÜ, retired), Filiz Eryılmaz (Bursa Uludağ University), Galip Yalman (ODTÜ, retired), Gökçer Özgür (Gettysburg College), Gülbiye Y.Yaşar (Ankara University), Güldem Atabay (Economist/Writer), Güneş Aşık (TOBB Ekonomi ve Teknoloji University), Güney Işıkara (New York University), Günseli Berik (University of Utah, retired), Hakan Mıhcı (Hacettepe University, retired), Haluk Levent (İstanbul Bilgi University), Hasan Cömert (Trinity College-Hartford), Hasan Murat Ertuğrul (Anadolu University), Hasan Tekgüç (Kadir Has University), Hayri Kozanoğlu (Altınbaş University), Hüseyin Özel (Hacettepe University), İbrahim Semih Akçomak (ODTÜ), İlhan Döğüş (University of Europe for Applied Sciences), İnsan Tunalı (Koç University, retired), İris Cibre (Financial Markets Expert), İsmail Ertürk (Manchester University), Kamil Yılmaz (Koç University), Kerem Cantekin (Independent Researcher), Kıvanç Karaman (Boğaziçi University), Korkut Boratav (Ankara University, retired), Korkut Ertürk (University of Utah), M. Aykut Attar (Hacettepe University), M. Kerem Çoban (SOAS, University of London & Kadir Has University), M. Murat Kubilay (International Finance Expert), M. Teoman Pamukçu (ODTÜ), M.Necat Coşkun (Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University), Mehmet Şişman (Marmara University), Mehmet Uğur (University of Greenwich), Mehmet Uluğ (Roskilde University), Murat Birdal (İstanbul University), Murat Taşdemir (İstanbul Medeniyet University), Mustafa Ulus (Galatasaray University), Nesrin Nas (Common Life Group), Oğuz Esen (İzmir Ekonomi University), Oğuz Yıldırım (Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University), Oktar Türel (ODTÜ, retired), Oktay Özden (Kadir Has University), Ömer Faruk Çolak (Journal of Economics and Society), Öner Günçavdı (İstanbul Teknik University), Onur Baycan (Anadolu University), Onur Yeni (Hacettepe University), Orhan Karaca (Independent Researcher), Orkun Saka (City, University of London & LSE), Özcan Ceylan (Özyeğin University), Özge Özay (Fitchburg State University), Özgün Biçer (Marmara University), Özgür Narin (Ordu University), Özgür Orhangazi (Kadir Has University), Özlem Onaran (University of Greenwich), Pelin Akçagün (Ondokuz Mayıs University), Pınar Deniz (Marmara University), Pınar Kahya (İnönü University), Selin Pelek (Galatasaray University), Serdal Bahçe (Ankara University), Serdar Acun (Munzur University), Sermin Sarıca (İstanbul University), Sevil Acar (Boğaziçi University), Sevinç Mıhcı (Hacettepe University), Şevket Pamuk (Boğaziçi University, retired), Sezgin Polat (Galatasaray University), T. Sabri Öncü (Former Senior Economist at UNCTAD, CAFRAL, former Head of Research at RBI), Tahsin Bakırtaş (Sakarya University), Tansel Güçlü (Munzur University), Timur Han Gür (Hacettepe University), Uğur Gürses (Economics Writer), Ümit Akçay (HWR Berlin), Umut Üzar (Karadeniz Teknik University), Ünal Zenginobuz (Boğaziçi University), Veysel Ulusoy (Boston College), Yakup Karabacak (Akdeniz University), Yalçın Karatepe (Ankara University Faculty of Political Sciences), Yasemin Dildar (California State University), Yiğit Atılgan (Sabancı University), Zafer Tunca (Retired Faculty Member), Ziya Öniş (Koç University).
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