Different inflation forecasts by Turkey’s Central Bank Governor, Finance Minister

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Shortly after Turkey's Minister of Treasury and Finance Nureddin Nebati said, "Inflation will be around 40 percent for some time", Central Bank Governor Şahap Kavcıoğlu said that the Bank's year-end inflation forecast for 2022 is between 18.6 percent and 27.8 percent.

Minister Nureddin Nebati met MPs, economists, academics and business leaders the day before (January 26) and informed them about the new steps to be taken by the government about the finance sector. As reported by Yücel Kayaoğlu from Dünya Newspaper, Minister Nebati said during the meeting that the new economic model is not dependent on a calendar.

Indicating that there is not a separate reform program, Nebati stated, "We will implement our steps one by one. We will not make them depend on a calendar. As the steps that we will take ripen, the President will unveil them and they will be put into practice immediately."

Speaking about the inflation as well, Minister Nebati said, "Our target is to bring down the inflation. It will be around 40 percent for some time. There will be some drop in summer months. With the base effect, we aim to bring it down under 30 percent by the end of the year."

Central Bank says it will be 23 percent

Şahap Kavcıoğlu, the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, addressed the reporters at a meeting held to release the Central Bank's first inflation report for this year earlier yesterday (January 27).

The Central Bank has revised its year-end inflation forecast upwards for 2022 and 2023 while it has kept its medium-term target at 5 percent.

Accordingly, annual inflation is projected to hit 23.2 percent in Turkey by the end of 2022, which shows that the annual inflation forecast is now revised up from 11.8 percent. The Bank has also revised up the annual inflation forecast for end-2023 from 7 to 8.2 percent.

According to the latest data of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the annual inflation rate was 36.08 percent in December 2021.

However, founded by a group of academics and announcing alternative inflation rates in Turkey, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) estimated the same rate for December 2021 as 82.81 percent.

CLICK - Annual inflation is over 82 percent, finds research group

(HA/SD)