A magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred off the coast of İstanbul today at 12.49 pm local time (GMT+3), according to Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).

AFAD reported that the epicenter of the quake was the inland Sea of Marmara, 23.2 kilometers off the coast of Silivri on the outskirts of İstanbul. The quake struck at a depth of 6.92 kilometers beneath the surface.

The tremor lasted 13 seconds and was strongly felt in İstanbul as well as across the neighboring provinces as panicked residents rushed out of their homes and workplaces.

At least 151 people were injured in İstanbul after jumping from buildings due to panic, the governor's office announced.

No serious damage

Dozes of aftershocks followed the initial tremor, with magnitudes up to 5.0, AFAD reported.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on social media that relevant state agencies had launched field surveys to assess potential damage. “I wish our citizens affected by the earthquake a swift recovery,” he wrote.

In a later statement, Yerlikaya said no residential buildings had collapsed due to the quake.

The İstanbul Metropolitan Municipaliy also reported no damage to buildings. In the Fatih district, an abandoned building partially collapsed after the quake. In Küçükçekmece, a 79-year-old man was hospitalized after falling in his home during the tremor, AA reported.

Schools across İstanbul, including universities, have been closed for two days.

The transportation infrastructure in the region did not incur any damage, according to the Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Abdülkadir Uraloğlu. “In our initial inspections, no damage or negative situation was found on our highways, airports, trains and subways. Our teams continue their general screening and control activities in the field," he wrote on social media.

AFAD also reported that no issues were detected in the natural gas, water, or electricity distribution networks in the region.

Is it a sign of the long-anticipated İstanbul quake?

A magnitude 7.0 or stronger earthquake is expected at any time off the coast of the 15-million-strong metropolis of İstanbul. The last major earthquake along the same Northern Anatolian Fault Line struck Kocaeli in 1999, killing more than 18,000 people.

According to district-level projections by the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality, a potential magnitude-7.5 earthquake could result in at least 14,000 deaths in the city. However, some experts warn that the actual number could be significantly higher, possibly reaching into the tens of thousands.

In Feb 2023, twin earthquakes centered in the southeastern province of Maraş claimed over 50,000 lives across 10 provinces and displaced millions, marking the deadliest quake in the coountry's history.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center at Dokuz Eylül University (DEU), said the earthquake occurred along the North Anatolian Fault, near the western segment of the fault line associated with the anticipated İstanbul quake.

"If the earthquake was completed in this way, we can actually say that we dodged a bullet," he was quoted as saying by Anadolu Agency (AA). "Of course, the earthquake spread over a large area. Çanakkale, Balıkesir, İzmir felt the earthquake. This is also normal. An earthquake of magnitude 6 is felt in all provinces within a radius of 250-300 kilometers.”

To the question whether today's tremor will be a signal of a big earthquake expected in İstanbul, Sözbilir said, “Actually, this is an İstanbul earthquake. Of course, scientifically, the debate on whether those pieces passing through the south of Istanbul are one piece, three pieces or two pieces continues scientifically.

"At the moment, we understand that a big piece has not broken, that is, not all of the fault has broken. Only one part has broken. The breakage of the whole fault is considered to be more like 7.4 or 7.5. Therefore, it is actually a good thing that it broke in pieces like this.

"If it broke as a single piece, it would produce a big earthquake. It would be much better if the energy accumulated by breaking in six or five pieces like this is dampened.”

Prof. Eşref Yalçınkaya, a seismologist at İstanbul University, commented on social media that the earthquake’s rupture characteristics reflect the nature of the North Anatolian Fault.

“We’ll need to monitor the distribution of aftershocks,” he wrote. “The potential for this quake to trigger another event must be carefully evaluated. Studies are underway to determine where and to what extent stress has been transferred.” (VK)