Anger most dominant emotion prior to May 14's dual election, survey reveals

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Politus Analytics published today (May 24) a report of voter attitudes and feelings leading up to the parliamentary and first round of the presidential elections held on May 14.

Data was obtained using artificial intelligence methods to process content collected from Twitter. The analysis was conducted on a weekly basis from January 1 to May 7.

Earthquakes, hope, and anger

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan supporters demonstrated a consistent trend of hope, while backers of oppositional candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu exhibited an increasing trend of hope, according to the data. The most notable surge in hope occurred during the week when Kilicdaroglu's candidacy was announced.

After a turbulent 72 hours, the Nation Alliance elected the Republican People Party (CHP)'s chairperson as their forerunner. During this period, the Good (İYİ) Party, led by Meral Akşener and the second-largest party in the main oppositional block, initially withdrew but eventually rejoined.

The candidates face a runoff for the presidency on May 28 after neither of the veteran politicians could surpass the necessary 50% voter threshold on May 14.

For both constituencies, the February 6 earthquakes had a tremendous impact emotionally, significantly influencing voter happiness and evoking deep sadness, with no significant difference observed between both groups.

The devasting tremors on February 6 pulverized substantial swathes of Turkey's south and southeast while also affecting large parts of Northern Syria. Over 50,000 people lost their lives in Turkey alone, according to government figures. But many believe the actual toll to be higher.

These tragic events caused significant anger among all voters. However, Kılıçdaroğlu supporters generally expressed higher levels of anger and concern compared to the incumbent's base. This anger decreased, however, as the election approached.

Nonetheless, anger remains the dominant feeling in both factions, with anger directed towards the justice system being significantly higher than that towards human rights and the country's economic situation.

In the last years, due to, amongst others, incumbent Erdoğan's unorthodox economic thoughts, Turkey has been subject to currency crashes and surging inflation vanishing foreign currency reserves and melting people's purchasing power.

Following the catastrophic earthquakes, anger toward the economy hit its lowest point but has steadily increased since March 4. In the final week before citizens headed to the polls, anger toward the economy surpassed anger toward human rights.

Other sentiments in the survey

• Gratitude: supporters of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) chair exhibited a higher sentiment of gratitude compared to Kılıçdaroğlu supporters.
• Fear: supporters of the main oppositional's candidate experience a relatively higher severity of fear, which also fluctuates more than the incumbent's backers.
• Surprise: Amongst Erdoğan's base, the level of surprise remained stable, while supporters of his main rival showed significant fluctuations in surprise.

(TY/WM)