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The Socio-Political Field Research Center has shared the results of its survey conducted in 20 provinces of Turkey between June 21-28.
When the participants are asked, "Which party would you vote for if we had elections this Sunday," 29.3 percent of them opt for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
While 27 percent say they would vote for the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), 12.6 percent choose the İYİ Party, 11.6 percent the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and 6.5 percent the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a partner of the ruling People's Alliance.
2.9 percent of the participants say they would vote for the DEVA Party of Ali Babacan, 1.2 percent say they would choose the Future Party of Ahmet Davutoğlu and 0.2 percent opt for the Felicity Party (SP).
Who should be elected the President?
The same question is also asked for the Presidential elections. 28 percent say that they would vote for current President and AKP Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan if Turkey had Presidential elections this Sunday. While 14.6 percent say that they would opt for anyone nominated by their party, 13.7 percent say they would vote for CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and 10.6 percent would vote for CHP's İstanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
7.3 percent of the participants say that they would vote for jailed former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş. While 6.3 percent opt for İYİ Party Chair Meral Akşener, 5.7 percent say they would vote for Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş, 2.3 percent for Ali Babacan and 0.8 percent for Muharrem İnce, the Presidential candidate of the CHP who founded his own party.
'Attacks lead people to claim the HDP more'
Speaking to bianet about the survey results, Socio-Political Field Research Center Coordinator Yüksel Genç says that the deadly attack on the HDP İzmir office on June 17, the closure case filed against the party and the remarks targeting the HDP "have led voters to lay claim to the HDP and this has been reflected in the survey results."
"The attacks have enabled the voters to be consolidated more around the HDP," says Yüksel Genç, briefly adding the following:
"Such attacks cause not only the HDP voters but also the groups who do not vote for the HDP to break down or question their prejudices in approaching the party; people want to lay claim to the HDP.
"This desire to lay claim to the party is more frequently observed among the party voters in the [Kurdish-majority eastern and southeastern] Region. Our research also supports these observations.
"In a study that we conducted about the HDP closure case in the provinces of the region in April, 30 percent of the the ones said that voted for the AKP, 67.3 percent of the ones who said that they voted for the CHP and 94.6 percent of the ones who said that they voted for the HDP indicated that they did not approve of the closure case filed against the HDP.
"While this rate was 18.5 percent among the MHP voters, it was 25 percent among the voters of the Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR), 59.4 percent among the İYİ Party voters and 50 percent for the SP voters.
"Of the voters who said 'I didn't vote', the majority of whom were the young ones who would vote for the first time, 62.1 percent said that they did not approve it. This data also indicates a consensus in the base."
'The emotional break is getting deeper'
Talking about the HDP closure case in the eyes of voters, Genç says, "every voter out of three thinks that the democracy of Turkey will be hurt in the event that the HDP is closed." Genç briefly adds:
"Similarly, around the same rate of people think that it will be a blow to the possibility of resolving the Kurdish question in democratic and peaceful ways, they think that the climate will become more tense.
"The rest are of the opinion that the weakening of Kurds' sphere of representation will make the emotional break deeper.
"Moreover, a considerable number of the ones who think like this are the voters who do not vote for the HDP. As you see, voters have a negative idea about the closure of the HDP with major concerns.
"The HDP voters also give responsibility to the opposition in the face of the HDP closure case: Two out of every three voters expect that the opposition party and groups solidarize with and lay claim to the HDP.
"A group of voters want the opposition parties themselves to tell the public about the harms to be caused by the closure of the HDP, they want them to launch campaigns about this. In the last analysis, this time, voters want them to be not powerful enough to close their party."
'Voters say, "I won't vote for any party"'
Concluding her remarks, Genç says that voters lash out at "the calculation that if the HDP is closed, the votes will go to the opposition parties or some of them will be in favor of the ruling party".
"Voters view such calculations made through them as simple calculations," says Yüksel Genç, explaining it as follows:
"While one third of them say that they will not vote for any party in the event that the HDP is closed, a considerable part of the participants indicate that they will take an attitude in line with their political views and in accordance with where the leaders point at.
"So, we are talking about voters who might do politics and make efforts to change the election's equation though they do not have a party.
"In a more open observation, it seems likely that the HDP voters might vote for an entity openly embracing the political program they support.
"In the essence of this program lies the resolution of the Kurdish question on the basis of collective rights."
Primary problem: Economic crisis
As part of this survey, the participants are first asked "What do you think is the most important problem of Turkey?" 47.9 percent of the participants say it is "Economic crisis/ Unemployment".
It is followed by the "Presidential System" with 16.1 percent, by the "Current state of the legal system" with 10.9 percent, by the "absence of democracy" with 8.9 percent and "Kurdish question" by 7.2 percent.
Presidential system: Unsuccessful
When the participants are asked, "Do you find the Presidential Government System successful," 58.3 percent say, "No." While 21.4 percent say "they are indecisive", 20.2 percent answer in the affirmative.
61 percent want a snap election
The participants are also asked, "Considering the current conditions in Turkey, do you think that a snap general election should be held?" While 61.4 percent answer this question in the affirmative, 22.4 percent say, "No" and 16.2 percent are "indecisive."
Government: Not successful
Rating the performance of the current government in governing the country, 59.2 percent say the government is unsuccessful. While 6.6 percent find it "very successful," 14.1 percent find it "successful" and 20 percent say they are "indecisive" about the answer of this question.
The participants are also asked questions about the allegations of Sedat Peker, who is accused of leading a criminal organization, regarding several political figures, especially Minister of Interior Süleyman Soylu.
64.4 percent of the participants do not think that "any effective investigation will be conducted into his allegations." 14.5 percent say that they think they will be partly investigated and 14.4 percent say that "they don't have an idea." Only 6.7 percent of the participants are of the opinion that "all allegations of Sedat Peker will be effectively investigated."
7.8 percent won't vote for alliances
When the participants are asked whether they would vote for the alliances (ruling People's Alliance and opposition Nation's Alliance) in the current situation, 30.1 percent opt for the Nation's Alliance while 29.3 percent say they would vote for the People's Alliance.
23.9 percent indicated that they might vote for an alliance only if the party they vote for is a part of it. While 8.9 percent say that they are "indecisive", 7.8 percent "would not vote under any circumstances."
'HDP shouldn't be a part of an alliance'
The participants are also asked "What kind of an alliance the HDP should be a part of?" 35.9 percent say that "it should not be part of any alliance." While 32.8 percent say that it should join the opposition Nation's Alliance, 16 percent are of the opinion that the HDP should be part of a new alliance to be formed by the DEVA Party and the main opposition CHP.
15.3 percent say that it should join the ruling alliance.
"Do you think that current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will win the elections if he runs again," the participants are also asked. 49.7 percent say, "No" while 24.9 percent answer in the affirmative.
About the participants
The survey of the Socio-Political Field Research Center was conducted with 1,008 participants from the provinces of İstanbul, İzmir Ankara, Adana, Ağrı, Batman, Bitlis, Diyarbakır, Antep, Kars, Mardin, Mersin, Urfa, Van, Antalya, Konya, Bursa, Muğla, Samsun and Artvin.
While the survey was conducted either online or on the phone, 37.8 percent of participants were at the ages of "18-24" and 18.3 percent were at the ages of "25-34." 54.6 percent of the participants women and 45.4 percent were men. More than 50 percent of the participants say that their monthly income is below starvation/poverty line. (RT/SD)
