‘3% of Non-Believers Support AKP’s Yıldırım, 20% of Devoutly Religious CHP’s İmamoğlu’

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After main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu has been elected the Metropolitan Mayor of İstanbul by a margin of over 800 thousand votes in repeat elections on June 23, the KONDA Research and Consultancy has released its report on "Ballot Box Analysis and Voter Profiles" for İstanbul election rerun.

In the pre-election period, KONDA shared its forecast that İmamoğlu would receive 54 percent of the votes while Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate Binali Yıldırım would receive 45 percent.

Presenting the numerical analysis of Parliamentary and Presidential Elections on June 24, 2018, and Local Elections on March 31 and June 23, 2019, KONDA has specifically focused on the voter transitions between the parties in İstanbul and the turnout rate of their voter bases.

Some highlights from the report are as follows:

3.5 percent of AKP voters voted for CHP's İmamoğlu

* While less than half of the voters of allying Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voted for the ruling AKP's Binali Yıldırım in March 31 local elections, the support of MHP voters in İstanbul repeat elections on June 23 fell and only one third of its voters voted for Yıldırım. This time, the majority of MHP voters cast their votes for CHP's Ekrem İmamoğlu.

* According to the voter transition model of KONDA, 3.5 percent of those who usually vote for the AKP cast their votes for İmamoğlu on June 23.

90 percent of HDP voters supported İmamoğlu

* The voters of Felicity Party (SP), who mostly voted for their own candidate on March 31, supported CHP candidate in İstanbul election rerun.

* Before the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) announced its support for CHP's İmamoğlu, 53 percent of its voters expressed their support for him. After the announcement of the party, this rate hit the level of 90 percent.

Support for candidates based on age and education

* The support of young voters for CHP's İmamoğlu increased from 37 percent to 58 percent in the İstanbul repeat elections while the rate of the youth who voted for AKP's Yıldırım dropped from 36 percent to 30 percent.

* When the educational background is considered, the research has shown that the rate of university graduates who said that they would vote for İmamoğlu increased from 48 percent to 64 percent.

* 60 percent of the ones who said that they would vote for AKP's Yıldırım were high-school graduates.

Women, laborers, students and unemployed

* While Yıldırım receives the highest rate of votes from women working at home, their support for İmamoğlu increased from 22 percent to 35 percent.

* The research has shown that while the majority of laborers and pensioners supported Yıldırım six months ago, their support for him gradually decreased in favor of İmamoğlu first on March 31, then on June 23.

* Comprising around 10 percent of İstanbul's population, the majority of students stated that they would vote for Ekrem İmamoğlu.

* The support of the unemployed İstanbulites, who comprises 6-8 percent of the city's population, for İmamoğlu has also recently increased.

Religion and belief

* In the category of "religious conservatives", the support for both Binali Yıldırım and Ekrem İmamoğlu increased on June 23.

* It can be said that the more religious a voter is, the likelier he or she would vote for Binali Yıldırım.

* 3 percent of non-believers, who comprise 6 percent of İstanbul's population, stated that they would vote for AKP's Yıldırım.

* On the other side, the ones who fulfill all religious obligations and whom we call "devoutly religious" comprise over 10 percent of İstanbul's population.

* However, one fifth of the devoutly religious stated that they would vote for CHP's Ekrem İmamoğlu.

* While 77 percent of Alevis said that they would support İmamoğlu in March 31 local elections, this figure increased to 87 percent on June 23.

* Before March 31, half of the Kurds living in İstanbul stated that they would vote for İmamoğlu. Before June 23 İstanbul election rerun, their support for İmamoğlu increased to 62 percent. (EKN/SD)

* Photograph: AA - Archive