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Geologist and Science Academy member Prof. Naci Görür answered the questions of Fatih Altaylı on HaberTürk the other evening (February 8).
Speaking about a possible earthquake in Marmara, where İstanbul is also located, Prof. Görür said, "The Marmara fault line is about to crack. It will create a minimum of magnitude 7.2 earthquake if it does."
He further warned that such an earthquake will affect not only the north of Marmara, but it will also lead to serious consequences in the cities and districts of Bursa, Bandırma (Balıkesir) and Biga (Çanakkale).
According to Prof. Görür, 
the rocks on the Anatolian side of İstanbul are older while those on the European side are sturdy and hard. Görür said, "In the İstanbul earthquake, there will be more damage on the European side than the Anatolian side. The southern regions should be careful."
"We are paying attention to the Marmara. We say that the key fault line is here. The stress here is higher than its dislocation force," he said.
Prof. Naci Görür explained that "the stress is currently on the North Anatolian Fault Line's one segment in the Princes' Islands and on its Kumburgaz fault line." He said, "So, if an earthquake is to happen in Marmara, it will happen on either the Princes' Islands segment or on the Kumburgaz fault line [in İstanbul], extending off the coast of Yeşilköy and Silivri [districts]."
Prof. Görür added, "The Princes' Islands fault line runs for nearly 43 kilometers. If the entire fault line cracks, it will produce a maximum of magnitude 7 earthquake. If this (Kumburgaz fault line) cracks, then it will lead to a minimum of magnitude 7.2 earthquake."
Regions where an earthquake is expected
In response to the questions of his followers, geologist Naci Görür warned that Bursa and Yalova provinces, Gemlik in Bursa, Bandırma in Balıkesir province and Biga in Çanakkale province should also be ready for a possible earthquake: "Even if the earthquake does not happen in the south, the damage it will cause may be higher than the northern block."
He recalled that geologists have been expecting an earthquake in Bursa and its vicinity and in the Biga peninsula as no earthquake has taken place in these places in southern Marmara for a long time.
Referring to the eastern parts of Turkey, Prof. Görür noted that geologists have also been expecting an earthquake along the line of Erzincan-Bingöl-Karlıova, adding that there are several fault lines in İzmir in Turkey's Aegean province and its vicinity in the west as well.
70 percent of Turkey in an earthquake zone
70 percent of Turkey's population live in an earthquake zone. Running from the east to the west of the country, the North Anatolian Fault Line's some sections run under the Marmara Sea. One of the major reasons behind an expectation for an earthquake in İstanbul is the earthquakes that have happened in the region over the past 100 years. Experts have long been warning that preparations should be made for such an earthquake. (TP/SD)
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