'Outbreak is not under control, strict measures may come back,' doctors warn

Photo: İstanbul/AA

Click to read the article in Turkish

After the reopening, daily cases rose from 827 on June 1 to 1,562 on June 14. Minister of Health Fahrettin Koca said on Twitter that "The number of the recovered patients has dropped below the number of new cases. The need for intensive care and ventilators is increasing. We are moving away from the target."

So, was it too early for the normalization? Why did the cases rapidly increase again? Was this increase predicted? How should the normalization have been? May strict measures come back? We spoke with doctors on the increase in new cases.

"Masks are meaningless in crowded environments"

Prof. Kayıhan Pala, a public health specialist from Uludağ University, said that the prevention of the epidemic "cannot be left to the will of the people" and that social mobility must be prevented.

"When shopping malls opened on May 11, we had said it was too early for that. Other workplaces also opened afterward and a complete opening process began on June 1.

"Many weeks have passed since the epidemic and we still don't know the distribution of patients and deaths by province.

"Health Minister Fahrettin Koca drew an analogy, saying, İstanbul was 'Wuhan of Turkey.' Then a normalization plan for İstanbul cannot be the same as another place where the outbreak is milder.

"We should know the distribution by province, district, age and gender, know the risk groups to make correct determinations for the normalization.

"Even the R0 value was about to go down to zero for some time, it has again closed to one. It even exceeded one. This means the epidemic is not under control.

"The control of the outbreak cannot be left to individuals' will. It is needed to prevent social mobility. Masks are very valuable but they are meaningless in close-distance and crowded environments, such as public transport.

"Normalization should have been gradual"

Dr. Nilay Etiler, the head of the Turkish Medical Association's (TTB) Public Health Branch and a member of the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality's Science Committee, said that the pandemic has not been managed by the Health Ministry.

"The decisions taken by the ministry are not being implemented. The process is managed with economic concerns. The normalization should have been gradual. It was a very quick opening.

"The increase in the number of cases was not expected, it increased too much. Along with clinical patients, intensive care patients also increased. It will increase even more. As soon as the [usage of] the capacity of intensive care units, closings will begin again.

"Also, we can't provide clear information about community immunity since we have not fully understood the disease yet. It would be wrong to say that 'Immunity will be gained after the opening.' Immunity is acquired after having the disease. But we can't know how long it will take because the disease has not been understood yet. The understanding of 'herd immunity' is not right. It means death."

"Measures my come back"

Prof. Mehmet Ceyhan, the head of the Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at Hacettepe University, said that strict measures might come back after the increase in new cases.

"For normalization, the number of [new] cases should be less than the number of recovered patients. With the normalization after June 1, cases have increased. This was an expected increase.

"The normalization should be general. One place can't be restricted while mobility continues in another place in Turkey. But it can be done in two ways: first, gradually, second, lifting [measures] entirely. We have chosen the second way. Measures will probably come back if the increase continues." 

(RT/VK)