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The situation in Iraq is evolving into political instability and chaos, with the political uncertainty brought by the general elections in October 2021 and the protests by the Shiite religious and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr to the extent of storming the parliament.
Meanwhile, repercussions of the attack on Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) Zaxo (Zakho) district and the killing of nine civilians in the attack continue with Iraq's accusations against Türkiye and Türkiye's denial.
So, what do the people who live and are involved in politics in the region think about the recent developments in Iraq?
Shunas Sherko Jdy, a member of the Gorran (Change) Movement's Diplomatic Relations Department, says a government cannot be established in Iraq without Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Sadr Group got the highest share of the votes in October's elections.
According to Sherko Jdy, there is one matter that all political parties in the country agree on: There should not be an intra-Shiite civil war: "Therefore, the situation in the country will not get out of control."
Responding to our questions about the Zaxo attack, Sherko Jdy says, "the Iraqi Kurdistan and Iraq should not take part between the tensions of different actors. Kurdistan should not take place there. Political parties should not take an action and choose one political actor among other political actors. History has proven that there is not going to be a win by fighting each other. Civilians will pay the price for it."
Unexpected results of the early elections
Since the last general elections in October 2021, there has been a political uncertainty in Iraq and more recently a political instability and turbulence, with protests mostly in Baghdad. What prompted this situation and what do different parties or sides argue?
The last election was different for the Iraqi people and for the political parties because the new election system.
Not so many political parties were happy about this. But because of the demands of the people and the massive protestes that took place in Baghdad in 2019, Kazimi came to power and promised to have an early election.
When the election took place, the results were different. So many political parties did not expect those results. There have always been conflicts between Mukteda es-Sadr and Nuri Al Malki on the other side.
After the election, there were discussions among the political parties. The Sunni could agree and come together to form a coalition where they, kind of, collected all of the Sunni voices.But Shia and Kurds could not agree on the agenda of the new government or forming the new government.
So, that is why there is a rivalry of power between the House of the Shiite and the House of Kurds as well.
"There will probably be a new election"
How do you see the future amid these recent developments and protests? Do you foresee any further escalation?
I do not think that the Iraqi government could be formed without Mukteda es-Sadr. I think that this is going to be committing suicide.
Last year, I had an interview with a newspaper from Turkey and they were asking me whether the election was going to happen without Mukteda es-Sadr. Back then, Mukteda es-Sadr boycotted the election, saying, "I will not participate in the election." I said that there was no way that the election was going to take place without Mukteda es-Sadr.
Right now, I am saying that it is impossible to form the new government without Mukteda es-Sadr and I think that the situation will not get out of hand, hopefully. What Shia Marja has said and what all the political parties agree is that there should not be a civil war taking place among the Shia political parties.
But I think that this government is going to continue for a year and there will probably be a new election.
"Iraqi government says they have evidence"
As you know, nine civilians were killed in Zaxo, in Iraqi Kurdistan on July 20. While Iraq accuses Türkiye, Türkiye accuses the PKK and the PKK accuses Türkiye. How is the issue discussed among the politicians and the media? What is the current state of affairs in the country in this context? What are the positions of different political parties, including yours?
Iraqi Kurdistan is a part of the Iraqi government and I think what the Minister of Foreign Affairs said at the meeting of the United Nations Security Council is exactly what most of the political parties think about this.
I think that the Iraqi Kurdistan and Iraq should not take part between the tensions of different actors. Kurdistan should not take place there. Political parties should not take an action and choose one political actor among other political actors.
Basically, this attack was massively outgoing among the Kurdish people and among the Iraqi people because there were so many civilians picnicking, some of these people came from Baghdad and other parts of Iraq. There was a family. There were two couples on their honeymoon and staying in Zaxo. So, this is why this went so massive. There were also children.
What the Iraqi government says is that they have evidence that this was coming all the way from Turkey. And, of course, Turkey has been denying this. But I think what we have heard is that the Iraqi government has all the evidence and I think that they have provided it to the international community that Turkey was behind the attack.
"Turkey-PKK tensions should not take place here"
You have also mentioned the UN Security Council... What further steps should we expect from the Iraqi government and Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government within this context?
I think that the Kurdish government and all of the political actors in Kurdistan have also condemned this attack. I think that any tension between Turkey and the PKK should not take place in Iraqi Kurdistan or Iraq.
We have been asking for a peacemaking process between all of the different actors in the Middle East. History has proven that there is not going to be a win by fighting each other. Civilians will pay the price for it.
That is why I think that there should be political negotiations among all the political actors in the Middle East, Kurdistan and Turkey.
These problems, these conflicts, these tensions should be sorted out via dialogue and negotiations.
Al Sadr's "strong statement"
There were also some statements from international organizations and countries such as the UN and US, and as far as I know some of them do not mention Türkiye specifically, they just talked about the attack. How do you find these statements? Are they enough?
I think that the entire international community is not happy about what is happening and most of them have had a strong stance. That is why this was vital among the international community as well. The UN representative in Iraq had a strong statement against Turkey. So I think this is the first time that the international community is taking a big action against what we have seen.
There were some protests following the attack. Is it still the case? Looking from Türkiye, we see that the opposition or reaction to Türkiye has grown incredibly in the recent period. If so, what is the reason for this? There are also comments that the reaction against the attack is so high because the victims were Arabs. Can this really be the reason?
I think that this is exactly the case. Because after the attack, some of the major political parties in Iraq made some strong statements. The first one was Mukteda es-Sadr. Mukteda es-Sadr made a very strong statement and I think that it somehow moved the Iraqi government to have a strong stance against this.
I think that this is exactly the case that the government came on board because the attack was killing some civilians. They were there on a vacation, they were doing their holidays. And at the same time, in the videos in the media, in the videos that went viral, people could see how badly this was taking place in Zaxo. So, I think that it was the main reason why it went vital.
"Opposition says Türkiye has too many bases"
What about the opposition or reaction against Türkiye? And the opposition or reaction against Türkiye? Is it only about this attack or are there any other reasons from perhaps lying back in history or in past events?
I do not think that most of the political parties are happy about the military bases that Turkey has in Iraq. What the opposition parties have been saying is that there are so many military bases of Turkey that exist in Iraq.
What Mukteda es-Sadr was also saying and what the Iraqi government has been asking is that Turkey remove all these military bases.
Lastly, I would like to ask about the relations between different political actors: Between the central Iraqi government and Türkiye as well as between Türkiye and Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government, Kurdistan Democratic Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and also Gorran... How do you see all these relations and how has the attack affected them?
I think that the relationship between the PUK and KDP is still the same. They have big differences especially regarding the Presidency of Iraq. The PUK still wants to take the Presidency while the KDP also wants to take the Presidency in Iraq.
So, they are still in negotiations and I do not see that they are having a good relationship. Over the last months, we have seen some negotiations taking place among them but their positions and stances are still the same.
The KDP's relationship with Turkey and the KRG relationship with Turkey is still doing good. There is a big exchange of goods between Turkey and Kurdistan. Kurdistan is still selling its oil through Turkey. So that is why they are still in a good relationship.
The relationship between Iraqi government and Turkey is not doing good at the moment after the attack that took place in Zaxo but I don't see that there have been high terrorism among the political actors in general. (SD/VK)
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