Cyprus: Turkeys Key to the EU

The elections will serve as referendum on the Annan plan, which was presented by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to serve as a basis for negotiations between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. The governing parties are against the plan, and the opposition supports accepting it.

The Annan Plan and the EU membership has become such focal points of the elections that, the name of one of the political parties running in the elections is: "Peace and EU Party."

Helsinki Citizens' Association invited a group of journalists and researchers to Cyprus for a three-day intensive visit. We met with the leaders of the seven political parties running in the elections. We walked around in the streets and tried to get a sense of what the people think.

UBP and CTP

The coalition partner National Unity Party (UBP) headed by Prime Minister Dervis Eroglu and the opposition Republican Turkish Party-United Powers (CTP) headed by Mehmet Ali Talat are the two biggest competitors in the elections.

One of these two parties will get the most votes on Sunday. So, either Dervis Eroglu will form the government again, or Mehmet Ali Talat.

One of the first things CTP will do if it wins the elections and forms a government, will be to remove President Rauf Denktash from his post as chief negotiator in reunification talks with the Greek Cypriots and to accept the Annan Plan.

Seven parties are running in the elections for a 50-seat parliament. Election threshold is five percent.

UBP- National Unity Party (Led by Dervis Eroglu)

CTP - Republican Turkish Party - Joint Forces (Led by Mehmet Ali Talat)

DP- Democratic Party (Led by Serdar Denktash)

BDH- Peace and Democracy Movement (Led by Mustafa Akinci)

CAP - Peace and European Union Party (Led by Ali Erel)

MBP- National Peace Party (Led by Ertugrul Hasiboglu)

KAP- Cyprus Justice Party (Led by Oguz Kalelioglu)

Dervis Eroglu's UBP and Serdar Denktash's DP are in the current governing

coalition. The remaining five parties are the opposition.

Opinion polls

According to a November 20 opinion poll by KADEM, conducted among 2,000

people, these are the percentage of votes each party will get:

* UBP - 22-26 percent

* CTP - 28-32 percent

* BDH - 15-19 percent

* DP - 8-12 percent

* CAP - 2-6 percent

* MBP - 1-4 percent

* KAP - 1-1,5 percent.

According to this poll, MBP and KAP will not be able to get enough votes to reach the threshold. CAP's situation is not clear.

The election system in Cyprus is such that voters are able to cast mixed votes to candidate lawmakers instead of voting for a party. About 1,5 percent is expected to cast mixed votes. However, some observers think the percentage will be higher.

The two governing parties, UBP and DP have different opinions about the Annan Plan. Eroglu says the plan cannot even be negotiated. Serdar Denktash, the son of President Rauf Denktash, says negotiations could be based on the Annan Plan.

The pro-EU opposition parties CTP, BDH and CABP want the Annan Plan to be accepted. However, they were not able to jointly run in the elections.

If a Turkish community of 200,000 is not able to agree within itself, how are they going to be able to reach an agreement during negotiations with the Greek Cypriots? This is the hardest question.

The debates over the Annan Plan have reached a point that now sides are accusing each other with betrayal. But when they are asked to say what Annan Plan gives or takes from them, none of them can really explain.

If the Annan Plan is accepted and put into expect, some think Cyprus will be lost. Others however believe the Annan Plan will open the way for both Cyprus' and Turkey's EU membership.

Opposition parties criticize the visiting Turkish ministers and say the money sent by Turkey is helping UBP. Moreover, the coalition partner Serdar Denktash is criticizing Prime Minister Eroglu for employing more than a thousand people in government offices to get their support.

Opposition parties say that UBP is using the money sent by Turkey to ensure a victory and tell people how corrupt the governing parties are.

The governing parties argue that the EU is interfering in the elections and that Verheugen, through his speeches, is pressuring people to vote for the opposition. They say that the Unites States' Ambassador to Cyprus is visiting the villages and trying to get support for the opposition.

The governing and opposition parties are accusing each other and allegations that Turkey and the EU are interfering in the elections is affecting the voters.

It is impossible for the Annan Plan to be accepted without Turkey's and EU's influence and unless there are five signatures under it.

The cost of no solution

It is time for Turkey to take a step toward solving the Cyprus problem because Cyprus will play a crucial role in Turkey's EU bid. No solution is not the solution, for sure. As the Loizidou case has demonstrated, the policy of no solution is pulling Turkey and Cyprus into huge traps.

A house like Titina Loizidou's is worth about USD 100,000 on the island. However Turkey has paid USD 1.5 million in damages to Loizidou for depriving her of access to her house.

The Justice and Development Party government is probably the biggest dilemma Turkey has about Cyprus, because people who have never thought about the Cyprus issue before are now in power.

And because they don't know the issue, they are scared to take steps. Moreover, the Justice government neither trusts people who are experts on Cyprus nor the Foreign Ministry. They are confused over this issue that they have no knowledge about. They are scared. They are influenced by everything they are told and they are hesitant.

Time, which is crucial for Turkey's future, EU bid and the solution of the Cyprus problem, is being wasted. Will the TRNC elections solve this knot? I don't really think so.

If the UBP wins, the Cyprus problem will become even harder to solve and Turkey's EU bid will be negatively affected. If the opposition parties win, can CTP form a government and become the governing power in Cyprus? It seems a little difficult. We will wait and see. But it seems that a solution depends on Turkey and the EU, rather than the Cyprus elections.

I guess while the EU is waiting for a solution in Cyprus before it gives a negotiations date to Turkey, while Turkey is delaying a solution in Cyprus until it gets a strong signal from the EU that negotiations will begin.

That is, of course, if the Justice party government has officials who know the EU and Cyprus issues in depths. It seems they don't. By the way, President Rauf Denktash's extraordinary resistance and his ability to affect every Turkish government toward a policy of no solution should also be taken into consideration for sure. (FO/EK/EA/NM)