Why Can’t We Read Society?

The results indicated by opinion polls before November 1 general election differ drastically than the electoral results. General opinion was suggesting a similar scenario that there won't be a huge difference between the outcome of the two elections.

Opposition embracing this perception, and Justice and Development Party (AKP) remaining silent except for a few statements such as the one made by AKP Leader Ahmet Davutoğlu "Our vote rate has increased by 2 points" have reinforced this perception.

Now the debate was dead set on this point: Why cannot researchers, scientists, and even opposition parties read Turkish society? We have posed these questions to investigtive-writer Ahmet Kardam whose one of research areas is tendency of political party voters, and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fatih Keskin.

CLICK - WHY WERE SURVEYS MISTAKEN?

Mistake of opinion poll companies

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fatih Keskin says history of this sector should be scrutinized to understand the mistake the opinion poll companies did for November 1 election. Keskin briefly summarizes this history as follows: "Opinion poll companies have developed in 1980s and made very accurate researches until 1990s. However, there was a huge mistake in 1994 İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality election. While all of the researches point Bedrettin Dalan, it was Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who was elected. After that, they gave up political researches in the following 6-7 years".

Keskin says November 1 can be defined as the "second big mistake". "There is normally a 2-2.5 points of margin of error but in this election, it went far beyond this limit".

Keskin adds the companies say they can't "read roust", which means they couldn't make out that this many votes would pass from Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) to AKP.

Investigative-writer Ahmet Kardam whose research areas include studies such as analysis of qualities, identities and tendencies of political party voters, stated that opinion poll companies usually use wrong sample method.

Kardam departing from his past experiences explains the situation as follows:

"Firstly sample methods of the companies should be examined. It is very important how it chooses the sample. Usually it is acted only upon the categories like sex, age, and education. However houses should be picked and visited randomly. But it is not preferred due to its high cost".

Keskin: Surveys couldn't be conducted properly

Fatih Keskin again departs from opinion poll companies for not reading society well: "They have their own reasons, it is said the surveys in east and southeastern regions couldn't conducted properly. Besides, hesitant voters who persisted the hesitancy till the last week made their decision in favor of government. It was said that survey by phone was preferred over face to face meetings".

"Deciding by ballot box"

Keskin is of the opinion that last minute decisions by ballot box is a factor:

"The government has made strong promises to voters against the chaos environment in the escalated violence atmosphere. Thus, the hesitant voters made their decision in favor of the government at the moment of voting by ballot box. Nevertheless, this doesn't make the companies less guilty".

"Government effect"

Keskin touches on a point unique to November 1 election: "Despite survey data, political figures of government side said they will increase their number of deputies a couple of days before the election. I believe the data reflected on public are not the same with the ones the government had it done for itself. I believe public was misled".

At this point, according to Keskin this attitude of polls willingly or unwillingly indicating that vote rate of AKP is low, directed unconsolidated voters to vote for the government.

"Surveys are a use of power at the end of the day. None of us know which company used what method on how many samples. There is also another thing; around 5-7 percent of the voters don't respond correctly when they are caught unprepared".

Kardam: "Social psychology has changed rapidly"

Kardam at this draws attention to society's psychological change: "In a very short period of time a rapid change occurred. It is not easy to measure it."

However, just like Fatih Keskin, Kardam is also of the opinion that all these are not sufficient to explain such a huge mistake.

"The progresses after June 7 elections have been very sudden, unexpected, and traumatic. So, voters were confused and it was already very difficult to measure it within this chaos.

"I believe it would be a bit unfair to talk about a specific mistake of the companies. Measuring this was much harder in this extraordinary situation". (NV/YY/HK/TK)

Click here to read the article in Turkish