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Steps to ease coronavirus measures shouldn't be perceived as "returning to the past," according to Dr. Nilay Etiler, a public health specialist and a member of the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality's Science Committee for the pandemic.
"It is pleasing that the R0 value has decreased compared to the early stages of the outbreak but it is not at a level to ensure relaxation," she told bianet.
The reproduction value
Minister of Health Fahrettin Koca said in a press briefing yesterday (May 13) that "The infection value (R0) increased to 16 in an area in İstanbul, on a provincial level, there were periods that we saw values from 4.5 to 5. I can say that it is currently 1.56 for Turkey."
CLICK - What is R0 and Why is It Important?
"R0 is a coefficient that indicates the potential of the disease to be transmitted to healthy people, the capacity of the disease to infect people," Dr. Etiler said. "If R0 is above 1, this means that the disease continues to spread to increase the number of cases. If it is below 1, it means the outbreak is fading.
On how the R0 value is calculated, Etiler said, "The number of people contacted, the probability of infection in the people contacted, the transmission time... It is calculated as a summary of these."
Returning to the old
She observed that people continuing their normal lives in İstanbul although the outbreak has not come to that stage, Etiler noted.
"From the very beginning, I have observed that the perception of risk is not generally very high among the public. When the ministry increased warnings, some people had a risk of perception, they somewhat realized the consequences of the disease.
"However, this perception changed again with the 'normalization' statements. The statements that everything was under control and the ministry's reassuring statements also had an influence on this.
"While returning to the old was not written in the normalization plans, people immediately tried to go back to their former orders because they were bored and wanted it to end. This is also the case in İstanbul. With the normalization discourse, the perception of risk, which was not high, further decreased, and people's behavior is dangerous.
The effect of reopening malls
The effect of the reopening of the shopping malls on Monday (May 11) might be seen in five-and-half days on average, she further said.
"The incubation period of the disease can be longer or shorter but we can see half of the possible cases, in other words, the effect of the new steps, in five or six days, five-and-a-half days on average. Within this period, it would be possible to understand the consequences of the 'shopping mall effect'." (AS/VK)
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